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Daily analysis with the receipts attached. Every claim cited.
September Jobs Rise Just 29,000 as Unemployment Edges to 4.2 Percent
BLS reported a soft payroll print on October 2, with wage growth at 3.0 percent year over year and combined July August revisions cutting 60,000 jobs from earlier estimates, 31 days before the midterms.
Trump Draws About 8,000 in Mobile, Marks MAGA Birthplace Stop With 31 Days Left
At the University of South Alabama Mitchell Center on October 2, the president again asked supporters to pretend he is on the ballot, hailed a G7 diesel reserve deal, and endorsed Alabama Republicans including the AL 2 challenger.
More Than 6,100 State Lawmakers Are on the Ballot With Trump's Agenda Downstream
Associated Press puts voters in 46 states choosing about 83 percent of all legislative seats, while Ballotpedia still shows Republicans holding 55 percent of seats and 57 chamber majorities against 39 for Democrats with 32 days left.
Trump Opens Midterm Blitz in Oklahoma After Texas Plant Stop, Heads to Alabama Next
At the Choctaw Event Center in Durant on October 1, the president asked supporters to pretend he is on the November ballot, floated $5,000 checks if Republicans keep Congress, and framed about 35 races as the real map with 32 days left.
Senate Recesses Until After Midterms as Leaders Race Home With 33 Days Left
The chamber adjourned late Wednesday after confirming Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling, leaving unfinished work for a Nov. 9 return while Republicans and Democrats open a five week campaign sprint.
Why Four Senate Flips Now Run Through Ten Trump Double Digit States
Reuters counts Democrats as competitive in ten states Trump won by double digits in 2024, while Crystal Ball still prints 48 seats at least Leans Democratic, 47 at least Leans Republican, and five Toss Ups.
Sabato Moves 11 House Races Toward Democrats as Virginia and Pennsylvania Tighten
Crystal Ball now rates 213 seats at least Leans Democratic against 202 at least Leans Republican, with 20 Toss Ups, after every one of Tuesday's 11 House shifts moved toward Democrats.
Why Sabato's 213 to 202 Board Puts Democrats Five Toss Ups From 218
Crystal Ball's September 29 map leaves Democrats five seats short of a House majority before any of the 20 Toss Ups are assigned, with Virginia's early closing districts framed as the first public stress test.
Why Republicans Are Spending in 39 Once Quiet House Races While Generics Sit Near Plus Eight
A Reuters review found major Republican groups opening at least 39 previously untouched House races since September 1, even as Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics put the national generic near Democrats plus 8.1 and plus 8.4.
Taxpayer Funded Trump Ads Draw Thune Criticism Five Weeks From the Midterms
AdImpact put White House spots near 1.5 million dollars in public spending as Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the message should not be paid for with taxpayer dollars.
Charlie Cook Calls the House a Done Deal for Democrats and the Senate Very Realistic
On ABC This Week September 27, the Cook Political Report founder projected about 20 House seats and a net of four Senate seats for Democrats, while Decision Desk HQ put chamber flip chances near 72 and 54 percent.
Why a Done Deal House Can Sit Beside a Coin Flip Senate
Charlie Cook's Sunday forecast of about 20 House seats and a net of four Senate seats fits the different math of each chamber, and it lines up with Decision Desk HQ chances near 72 percent and 54 percent.
Why a 91 Percent House Favorite Can Sit Beside a 69 Percent Senate Favorite
Silver Bulletin can price Democrats as overwhelming House favorites and only clear Senate favorites at the same time because Democrats need a net of four Senate seats while Vice President JD Vance breaks ties, and because Maine remains a soft spot on an otherwise expanding map.
Silver Bulletin Forecast Puts Democrats at 69 Percent for Senate and 91 Percent for House
Silver Bulletin updated its FLIPR midterm forecast on September 26 with Democrats as clear favorites for both chambers, while its approval tracker shows President Donald Trump at a series low near minus 22 net.
National Generics Near Plus Nine While Cook's Competitive Districts Sit at Plus Two
NBC's September 25 average puts Democrats ahead 52 to 43 nationally, Emerson reads 53 to 42, and RealClearPolitics blends near plus 8.7, yet Cook's Battleground District Project found only a two point Democratic edge inside the 37 competitive House seats that decide the Speakership.
NBC Polling Average Puts Democrats Ahead 52 to 43 on Congress With Trump at 39 Percent Approval
NBC News released September 25 polling averages showing Democrats preferred for Congress 52 percent to 43 percent on a likely voter scale and President Donald Trump at 39 percent approval against 59 percent disapproval, with independents driving most of the shift.
Cook Shifts 15 House Ratings Toward Democrats While Republicans Hold a $103 Million Committee Cash Edge
Erin Covey's September 25 House overview says Republicans are on track to lose the majority with a most likely Democratic pickup of five to 15 seats, even as FEC filings show Republican national committees entered September with about $233.4 million to Democrats' $130.4 million and Cook still calls the Senate a true toss up.
NYT Siena Puts El Sayed Ahead 49 to 44 in Michigan and Pappas Ahead 50 to 45 in New Hampshire
September 15 to 22 New York Times Siena likely voter surveys show Democratic leads in Michigan and New Hampshire Senate races while Susan Collins leads Troy Jackson 49 to 46 in Maine, with a University of New Hampshire poll also putting Pappas ahead 50 to 42.
Prediction Markets Price a Democratic Sweep Near Two Thirds While Cook's House Map Still Asks for Toss Ups
As of September 23 to 24, Polymarket and Kalshi put Democratic House odds near 90 percent and Senate control near the mid 60s, yet Cook's widely cited board still reads 206 to 208 with 21 toss ups that Democrats must mostly win for a majority.
Economist YouGov Puts Trump at 35 Percent Approval With Democrats Ahead 52 to 38 Among Likely Voters
A September 18 to 21 Economist YouGov survey finds Trump job approval at 35 percent among registered voters after a five point weekly drop, tariffs approval at 32 percent, and Democrats leading by 14 points among likely voters on the House ballot.
CNN Poll Puts Trump Economy Approval at 27 Percent With Democrats Ahead 49 to 41
A CNN SSRS survey fielded September 16 to 17 finds a numeric low for Trump job approval near one third, economy approval at 27 percent, and registered voters preferring Democrats by eight points with 44 percent casting their House vote as opposition to the president.
Sabato Moves Michigan Senate to Leans Democratic as Fox Favors Democrats in 215 House Seats
Tuesday's Crystal Ball board now shows 211 seats at least leaning Democratic, 203 at least leaning Republican, and 21 toss ups. Fox News Power Rankings put Democrats favored in 215 seats with 19 toss ups. Cook's cited board still reads 206 to 208 with 21 toss ups.
Reuters Ipsos Puts Trump at 32 Percent Approval, a Career Low With Cost of Living at 17 Percent
A new Reuters Ipsos survey of 1,277 adults finds the lowest presidential approval in that series across both Trump terms, a Republican crack on living costs, and Democrats ahead 43 to 35 among registered voters on the midterm ballot.
Generic Leads Widen Near 8 Points While Cook's House Map Still Reads 206 to 208
RealClearPolitics averages Democrats ahead 50.5 to 42. Quantus prints an 8.6 point likely voter edge. Cook's cited House board still needs Democrats to win most of 21 toss ups for a majority.
At 43 Days, Cook's House Map Stays 206 to 208 While September Ad Dollars Favor Republicans
The New York Times Monday wrap put Cook at 206 seats leaning Democratic, 208 leaning Republican, and 21 toss ups. Wall Street Journal AdImpact tallies show Republicans opening a large September spending edge in key Senate races.
NBC Poll Puts Trump at 41 Percent Approval With Democrats Ahead 50 to 45 on Congress
A new NBC News survey of registered voters finds a second term low for presidential approval, a five point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot, and a majority saying the president's policies have hurt the economy.
Twenty States Are Already Mailing Midterm Ballots With 44 Days to Go
Bloomberg reported Saturday that 20 states are mailing ballots and that early in person voting began Friday in Virginia, Idaho, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Election Day remains November 3.
Morris Says Race Raters Underestimate Democratic House Odds by About 30 Points
G. Elliott Morris argues that a literal reading of Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato boards implies a House coin flip, while a historically debiased reading implies about an 83 percent Democratic chance. Prediction markets and FiftyPlusOne sit closer to the debiased number.
Trump Announces Ban on CNN, MS NOW, and Politico From the White House
On Friday the president said the ban is effective immediately. CNN called it an illegal assault. Politico vowed to defend First Amendment rights. Reporters from the named outlets remained on the grounds hours after the announcement.
Kalshi Prices Democratic House Near 90 Percent While Sabato Still Shows a Narrow Senate Edge
As of Saturday reporting, Kalshi traders price Democratic House control near 90 percent and Democratic Senate control near 58 percent. Sabato's Crystal Ball still shows Republicans ahead 48 to 47 on the Senate board with 22 House toss ups after eight Democratic leaning moves.
Early Voting Opens in Virginia as Cost of Living and Iran War Frame the Final Six Weeks
Virginia begins in person early voting on Friday. Idaho, Minnesota, and South Dakota open in person absentee casting the same day. Mortgage rates near 7 percent and CPI at 3.4 percent sit beside a 46 day clock to Election Day.
Cook Lists Seven Senate Toss Ups as Forecast Models Split on Chamber Control
Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas sit in Cook's Toss Up column after the September 15 New Hampshire move. Qualitative boards and probability models still disagree on who holds the gavel.
Cook Battleground Poll: Democrats Lead 49 to 47 in Districts Trump Won by Five
The September Battleground District Project surveyed 1,052 likely voters across 37 competitive House seats. The seven point swing toward Democrats lands on the same week Crystal Ball widened its Toss Up board.
Sabato Moves Eight House Races Toward Democrats as Toss Up Board Widens
Crystal Ball shifted IA-2 and MI-4 into Toss Up and NJ-7 into Leans Democratic on Wednesday. Four seats once rated Safe Republican are now Likely. Forty seven days remain until Election Day.
Senate Blocks Clarity Act as Crypto Market Structure Bill Falls Short of 60 Votes
Cloture on the motion to proceed failed 49 to 50 on Tuesday. The House had passed the same bill 294 to 134 in July 2025. Forty eight days remain until Election Day.
Trump Linked Super PACs Reserve Nearly $138 Million for Midterm Republicans
MAGA Inc., No Going Back PAC, and Safety and Affordability PAC booked ads, mail, and texts across about 50 races in ten days. The heaviest Senate reservations land in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska.
Supreme Court Blocks Trump Mail Ballot Restrictions Ahead of Midterms
In an unsigned Monday order the justices left a Boston injunction in place. Mail ballots have accounted for nearly a third of recent votes. Forty nine days remain until Election Day.
Times/Siena Poll Puts Democrats Ahead on the Generic Ballot With 49 Days Left
Registered voters favored Democratic House candidates 49 percent to 42 percent in the new Times/Siena survey. Likely voter approval of President Trump sat at 38 percent. The Senate still requires a Democratic net of four.
Trump Rejects AI Slowdown as House Returns for Final Pre Midterm Week
President Donald Trump said Sunday the United States leads China on artificial intelligence and should keep that edge. Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries both flagged AI risk on Sunday shows while disagreeing on pace. The House is back for what is scheduled as its last week before November.
Vance Opens Midterm Swing in Kansas as Trump Heads to North Carolina
Vice President JD Vance travels to Kansas for Sen. Roger Marshall while President Donald Trump is scheduled in North Carolina on Wednesday. Fifty days remain until Election Day.
September Senate Polls Put Multiple Battlegrounds Inside the Margin
Named surveys fielded in early September show Democrats ahead or tied in North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Texas, and Florida. Cook still prints six Senate Toss Ups. Fifty one days remain until Election Day.
Wisconsin Governor Nominee Tom Tiffany Swims to Safety After Lake Landing
Rep. Tom Tiffany and his pilot lost power on approach to Wausau Downtown Airport Saturday night, landed a four seat Bonanza in Lake Wausau, and swam to shallow water with minor injuries. Fifty one days remain until Election Day.
Appeals Court Keeps Block on USPS Mail Ballot Rule. Supreme Court Still Deciding.
On September 10 the First Circuit refused to lift Judge Indira Talwani's injunction against a Postal Service mail ballot rule written under President Trump's March order. The Justice Department already asked the Supreme Court to intervene. Fifty two days remain until Election Day.
Sabato Moves Two House Seats Toward Democrats. Missouri Map Changes Still Pending.
On September 10 Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted AL-2 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican and TX-34 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. The same package flagged Missouri rating changes if the state stays on 2022 lines. Fifty two days remain until Election Day.
Dallas Convention Closes. Midterm History Still Averages a House Loss Near 27 Seats.
Republicans wrapped a first of its kind midterm convention in Dallas on September 10. The American Presidency Project average for the president's party since 1934 is a loss of about 27 House seats and about 3 to 4 Senate seats. Forecasters still call the Senate a coin flip.
Supreme Court Blocks Missouri GOP Map. State Reverts to 2022 Lines for November.
On September 10 the U.S. Supreme Court stayed a federal order that would have forced Missouri to use a 2025 Republican drawn congressional map. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins directed local officials back to the 2022 districts. Fifty three days remain until Election Day.
Foulkes Defeats Gov. McKee in Rhode Island. Cook Still Rates the Seat Solid Democrat.
Helena Foulkes won the Democratic nomination for governor on September 9 with about 62.4 percent to Dan McKee's 37.6 percent. McKee is the first sitting U.S. governor to lose a primary since 2018. The November rating did not move.
Trump Pledges a $5,000 Dividend if Republicans Keep Congress. The Cost Math Is Public.
At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on September 9, President Trump promised $5,000 to every adult citizen if his party holds the House and Senate. Named cost estimates run above $1 trillion. Fifty four days remain until Election Day.
Sununu and Pappas Win New Hampshire Primaries. The Senate General Is Set.
Former Sen. John E. Sununu and Rep. Chris Pappas won Tuesday night. With about 84 to 88 percent of the vote counted, Sununu led Scott Brown 68.5 to 26.7 and Pappas led Karishma Manzur 65 to 32.8. Fifty five days remain until November 3.
Republicans Open a Midterm Convention in Dallas. The Map Still Runs on Ratings.
The first Republican midterm convention gathers Wednesday and Thursday at American Airlines Center with more than 100 speakers. New Hampshire just locked Sununu versus Pappas. Cook still prints six Senate Toss Ups. Fifty five days remain.
New Hampshire Votes Today for Shaheen Open Senate Seat
September 8 primaries name nominees for Jeanne Shaheen's open U.S. Senate seat. Inside Elections rates the general Toss Up. Cook and Sabato still say Lean Democrat. Fifty six days remain until November 3.
Senate Control Is Wide Open Fifty Six Days Out. The Map Shows Why.
Associated Press calls the chamber up for grabs after Labor Day. Cook lists six Toss Ups. Democrats need a net of four. The RealClearPolitics generic ballot average sits at Democrats plus 5.8.
FT Poll Puts Trump Approval at 33 Percent. The Full Aggregator Table Reads Higher.
Focaldata for the Financial Times found 33 percent approval among registered voters, the lowest reading in that series since May. Aggregators updated September 6 average near 38 percent. Rasmussen's September 7 tracker prints 43 percent. Read the whole board.
New Hampshire Votes Tuesday for Shaheen Open Senate Seat
Primaries land September 8 for the open Jeanne Shaheen seat. Inside Elections rates the general election Toss Up. Cook and Sabato still say Lean Democrat. A late August UNH trial heat had Sununu 45 and Pappas 43.
MAGA Inc. Files $10 Million Texas Senate Ad Buy, Its First General Election Spend
President Trump's allied super PAC disclosed a Saturday FEC filing for Ken Paxton against James Talarico: $5 million supporting the Republican and $5 million opposing the Democrat. The group held more than $400 million as of July 31.
Texas Senate Is a Toss Up on Two Boards. Super PAC Money Just Arrived.
Cook and Sabato rate Paxton versus Talarico Toss Up. Inside Elections still says Lean Republican. MAGA Inc. filed $10 million on Saturday. America PAC already put Texas first in its August Senate spend. Fifty eight days remain.
BLS: Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in August. Unemployment Held at 4.1 Percent.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that August payrolls rose by 162,000, about three times the consensus forecast. June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000. Food services and local schools led the gain.
Inside Elections Moves New Hampshire Senate to Toss Up Ahead of September 8 Primary
Nathan Gonzales's shop shifted the open Jeanne Shaheen seat from Tilt Democrat to Toss Up on September 3. Cook and Sabato still rate the race Lean Democrat. Primaries land Tuesday. A recent UNH trial heat had John E. Sununu ahead of Chris Pappas 45 to 43.
House Keeps Four Session Days Before November. Cook Publishes Three Midterm Scenarios.
Speaker Mike Johnson canceled the weeks of September 21 and September 28, leaving one more four day voting week starting September 14. Charlie Cook's latest column puts Republican House losses in bands of 15 to 25, 26 to 35, or worse. Election Day is 60 days away.
Missouri Supreme Court Blocks Trump Backed House Map for November
A unanimous state high court ruled the 2025 Republican drawn districts cannot be used in the 2026 general election unless voters first approve them. The 2022 map stays in force. Attorney General Catherine Hanaway said she will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
America PAC Discloses About $800,000 in First Midterm Independent Expenditures
Elon Musk's super PAC reported August printing costs across seven Senate battlegrounds and eight House races. Texas led at about $247,595. The New York Times previously reported a $100 million to $120 million midterm authorization. Election Day is 61 days away.
New Hampshire Senate Primary Is Five Days Out. The General Already Looks Close.
Voters choose nominees on September 8 to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. UNH has Sununu 45 and Pappas 43 in a general trial heat. Cook rates the seat Lean Democrat. An NRSC Fabrizio poll of 600 voters is described as a dead heat.
Markey Defeats Moulton About 66 to 34 in Massachusetts Senate Primary
The Associated Press called the Democratic nomination for the 80 year old incumbent on September 1. Ballotpedia's tabulated share stood near 65.6 percent to 34.4 percent. Cook still rates the November race Solid Democrat. Election Day is 62 days away.
Cook: Senate Battleground Still About Nine Seats, Not a Blue Tsunami Map
Jessica Taylor's September 1 overview keeps six Republican held and three Democratic held seats in the competitive core, with Kansas and Nebraska only Likely Republican. Massachusetts finished its primary. The national board did not suddenly add Mississippi.
EPIC-MRA: El-Sayed Leads Rogers 47 to 43 in Michigan Senate Race
A Lansing survey fielded August 22 to 28 puts the Democratic nominee four points ahead of Mike Rogers with 10 percent undecided. The same poll has Jocelyn Benson ahead of John James 45 to 41 for governor. Cook still rates the open Senate seat a Toss Up. Election Day is 63 days away.
Massachusetts Votes Today: Markey Leads Moulton by Double Digits in Final Polls
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. for the September 1 primary. Emerson College put Ed Markey at 60 percent and Seth Moulton at 33 percent in a late August survey. UMass Amherst/WCVB had Markey at 60 to 32. Cook rates the general election seat Solid Democrat.
RCP Aggregate: Republicans Trail in Eight of Nine Senate Battlegrounds
A RealClearPolitics polling stack published August 30 shows GOP candidates behind in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Texas. Iowa is the lone bright spot at plus 1.4. Cook still lists six Senate Toss Ups. Election Day is 64 days away.
Primary Eve in Massachusetts: Healey at 50 Percent Approval, Minogue Leads GOP Field
UNH's late August Bay State Poll puts Gov. Maura Healey at 50 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove, with double digit leads over both Republican hopefuls. Mike Minogue leads Brian Shortsleeve 55 to 11 among likely Republican primary voters. Tuesday names the nominees. November still decides the offices.
Cook's Walter: Specials Show Democrats Ahead by 12.5 Points on Average
Amy Walter's August 27 analysis puts The Downballot's special election overperformance at 12.5 points for Democrats versus the 2024 Harris share. A July Fox poll shows MAGA Republicans far more extremely motivated than other Republicans. Turnout instruments are not November counts.
Markey Leads Moulton by Double Digits Two Days Before Massachusetts Primary
Three late August polls put Sen. Ed Markey ahead of Rep. Seth Moulton by 14 to 35 points in the Sept. 1 Democratic Senate primary. UNH has Markey at 63 percent. Tuesday finishes the nomination. November still decides the seat.
Top Twenty Midterm Donors Have Already Put Up $1.2 Billion
A New York Times analysis published August 28, 2026, finds the twenty largest midterm donors have combined to give $1.2 billion in the 2026 cycle so far. Tech founders and Republican leaning givers lead the table. The generic ballot still shows Democrats ahead by about six points.
Justice Department Appeals Block on Postal Service Mail Ballot Rule
On August 28, 2026, the Justice Department filed notice that it is appealing Judge Indira Talwani's temporary restraining order that paused a U.S. Postal Service regulation on mail ballots. The First Circuit is next. North Carolina is set to begin mailing ballots as early as September 4.
Judge Again Bars Postal Service From Restricting Mail Ballots
On August 27, 2026, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani issued a temporary restraining order blocking a U.S. Postal Service regulation tied to President Trump's mail ballot executive order. The order holds for at least 14 days, with a hearing set for September 3, fewer than 70 days before the November 3 midterms.
Corporate Midterm Spending Hits a Record $646 Million
Public Citizen and Reuters reported on August 27, 2026, that U.S. companies have already donated $646 million to federal campaigns in the 2026 cycle, about 40 percent more than corporations spent across the entire 2024 presidential cycle. Crypto, artificial intelligence, and online betting firms lead the surge.
A Debt Limit Through 2029 Meets a Forty Trillion Dollar Ledger
On August 26, 2026, The Hill reported that President Trump wants a reconciliation package to raise the debt limit through the end of his term. Treasury Debt to the Penny shows total public debt at about $40.099 trillion as of August 25. Borrowing authority and the gross debt stock are related instruments. They are not the same instrument.
House Leaders Eye Quick Vote on Senate Stopgap Through December 11
On August 26, 2026, House Republican leaders signaled they may take up the Senate passed continuing resolution under suspension of the rules early next week, a path that needs a two thirds majority. The Senate bill funds agencies through December 11. The House bill that passed in July runs only through December 4.
Cook Moves Florida 14 and Michigan 10 to Toss Up
On August 25, 2026, Cook Political Report shifted Florida 14 and Michigan 10 from Lean Republican to Toss Up and moved Michigan 8 from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. The board now lists 21 Toss Ups, with 16 on the Republican side of the ledger.
How a House Rating Moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up
Cook's August 25, 2026 shift of Florida 14 and Michigan 10 from Lean Republican to Toss Up is a clean case study in what that one notch means for majority math, donor attention, and what a rating still cannot settle.
How Majority Thresholds Force Primary Runoffs in South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Georgia
When no candidate clears 50 percent, state law prints a second round. August 25 puts that rule to work in a Senate nomination, a governor nomination, and a House special. The first place receipt is real. The majority receipt is the one that finishes the job.
Three States Finish Runoffs on August 25 as Cook Still Lists Six Senate Toss Ups
South Carolina names a Republican Senate nominee, Georgia fills a House remainder, and Oklahoma finishes a governor nomination on the same Tuesday. The Clerk still lists four House vacancies until seating finishes. Cook Political Report still shows six Senate Toss Ups from its August 20 board.
Two Runoffs Share Tuesday as the House Still Carries Four Vacancies
South Carolina finishes a Republican Senate nomination runoff and Georgia finishes a House District 13 special runoff on August 25. Published House snapshots still list four vacancies. Cook Political Report still lists six Senate Toss Ups from its August 20 board.
How a Special Election Remainder Differs From the November Full Term
Georgia's 13th District votes August 25 to finish David Scott's current House term. November votes for a separate two year term that starts in January 2027. Same district. Different jobs. Here is the calendar math.
Forbes Frames Six Cook Senate Toss Ups as Trump Approval Sits Near 38 Percent
An August 22 Forbes survey of the midterm Senate map lists Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas as the six Cook Political Report Toss Ups. Five of the six are Republican held seats. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin average puts President Trump's approval near 38 percent.
How a House Special Election Runoff Works: The Majority Rule Behind Georgia 13's Tuesday Ballot
When no candidate clears a majority in a special election to fill a vacant House seat, Georgia forces a second round between the top two. The August 25 runoff between Democrats Marcye Scott and Everton Blair Jr. is the live case. Here is the rule, the calendar, and what a House runoff does and does not decide.
High Point Poll Puts Cooper at 50 Percent and Whatley at 45 in North Carolina Senate Race
A High Point University survey released August 21, 2026, finds former Gov. Roy Cooper leading former RNC Chair Michael Whatley 50 to 45 among likely voters for the open seat of retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. The five point gap sits inside the poll's 5.2 point credibility interval and is the tightest public reading of the cycle.
How a Senate Primary Runoff Works: The Majority Rule Behind Tuesday's South Carolina Ballot
When no candidate clears 50 percent in a party primary, some states force a second round between the top two. South Carolina's August 25 Republican Senate runoff between Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman is the live case. Here is the rule, the calendar, and what a runoff does and does not decide.
How a Senate Rating Moves From Lean to Toss Up
Cook Political Report moved Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up on August 20, 2026. Here is what those labels measure, how they differ from a Safe or Likely step, and how to read a one notch change without inventing a wave.
Cook Moves Texas and Iowa Senate Races to Toss Up
On August 20, 2026, Cook Political Report shifted the open Senate races in Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up. The board now shows six Toss Ups, zero Lean Republican seats, and a chamber fight Cook describes as a toss up with a slim Republican structural edge.
How a Senate Rating Moves From Likely to Safe
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Florida from Likely Republican to Safe Republican on August 19, 2026. Cook already had Solid Republican. Here is what those labels measure, what they do not measure, and how to read a one notch change without mistaking it for Election Day.
Sabato Moves Florida Senate to Safe Republican After Nixon Win
On August 19, 2026, Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted Florida's special Senate race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. Cook already listed the seat Solid Republican. The move follows Angie Nixon's 55.9 percent primary win and Ashley Moody's cash lead.
How Alaska's Top Four Senate Primary Works
Alaska advances the top four primary finishers to a ranked choice general regardless of party. On August 18, 2026, Sen. Dan S. Sullivan and Mary Peltola both advanced in a race Cook rates Toss Up. The primary names the field. November decides the seat.
Primary Night Sets Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming Fields as Wahab Leads California 14
Angie Nixon took 55.9 percent in Florida's Democratic Senate special primary. Harriet Hageman took 64.9 percent in Wyoming. Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola advanced in Alaska. Aisha Wahab led Melissa Hernandez 51.0 to 49.0 percent in California's House special with the canvass still open.
How a California Top Two House Special Works
California advances the top two primary finishers to a special general regardless of party. The August 18 California 14 runoff is the live case study: 123,539 primary ballots, a 42.8 to 16.8 Democratic pair, and a vacancy filled by election rather than appointment.
California 14 Votes Today to Fill One of Four House Vacancies
Polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific. Democrats Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez face off after a June 16 top two primary. About 52,000 ballots were already cast. The seat is deep blue. The Clerk still lists three other empty House chairs.
Silver Bulletin Launches Its 2026 Midterm Forecast With Democrats Ahead on the Generic Ballot
On August 16 the Silver Bulletin opened its daily FLIPR midterm model and restated its generic ballot average at Democrats plus 6.7, or plus 8.1 after a likely voter adjustment. RealClearPolitics sits at Democrats plus 6.8. Cook still lists 19 House Toss Ups. A forecast is a probability machine, not a seat count.
How to Read a Generic Ballot Average Before the 2026 Midterms
A generic ballot asks which party a voter prefers for Congress, not which named candidate. Averages near Democrats plus 7 in mid August are real national inputs. They are not district results. Here is how to weight the field without treating any single poll as destiny.
Two Days Out: California 14 Special General Fills an Empty House Seat
On August 18, voters in California's 14th District choose between Democrats Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez. The June 16 top two primary put Wahab at 42.8 percent and Hernandez at 16.8 percent. The Clerk still lists four House vacancies. This special restores one of them.
July Retail Sales Fell 0.6 Percent; Year Over Year Still Up 5.0 Percent
The Census Bureau reported July advance retail and food services sales of $763.6 billion on August 14. That is down 0.6 percent from June and up 5.0 percent from July 2025. The May through July period is up 6.3 percent from a year earlier. Read the full table, not one row.
FBI: Murder Fell 18.1 Percent in 2025; Violent Crime Down 9.3 Percent
On August 14 the FBI and the White House put 2025 crime figures on the midterm calendar. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell an estimated 18.1 percent. Overall violent crime fell 9.3 percent. Property crime fell 12.4 percent. The homicide rate is the lowest since the mid 1950s on the FBI series.
July CPI Rises 0.1 Percent; Annual Inflation Slows to 3.4 Percent
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released July 2026 consumer prices on August 12. All items rose 0.1 percent on the month after falling 0.4 percent in June. Over 12 months the index is up 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent in June. Core inflation is 2.5 percent. Energy is still the loud line on the annual table.
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