The Week in Rankings: July 2026

Two rulings, one day

June 30, 2026 was the heaviest single day of the political year so far. The Supreme Court issued two decisions that will shape the record for years. First, the Court upheld birthright citizenship. In Trump v. Barbara, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the opinion striking down the president's executive order that sought to end automatic citizenship for children born in the United States to parents unlawfully or temporarily present (Supreme Court of the United States, Trump v. Barbara, No. 25-365, June 30, 2026). The margin was 6 to 3. Roberts wrote that the authors of the Fourteenth Amendment defined citizenship in deliberately broad terms (NPR, June 30, 2026). Justice Clarence Thomas dissented, joined by Justice Neil Gorsuch. Justice Brett Kavanaugh concurred on statutory rather than constitutional grounds, resting on 1950s federal legislation (SCOTUSblog, June 30, 2026).

Second, the Court struck down the federal limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with their own candidates. In National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC, the Court ruled 6 to 3 that the coordinated party expenditure limits in the Federal Election Campaign Act violate the First Amendment (Supreme Court of the United States, NRSC v. FEC, No. 24-621, June 30, 2026). The decision overturned FEC v. Colorado Republican Federal Campaign Committee, the 2001 precedent that had upheld the same limits 5 to 4 (SCOTUSblog, June 30, 2026). We do not editorialize on either ruling. We record what they change.

What the money ruling changes for the midterms

The NRSC ruling takes effect immediately, in the middle of a midterm cycle. National party committees and the federal accounts of state parties can now spend unlimited amounts in direct coordination with individual federal candidates (Covington and Burling LLP, client advisory, June 2026). Before the ruling, coordinated spending was capped by formula. After it, the caps are gone. Analysts on both sides expect party committees to become larger players in the closest 2026 races, because coordinated spending is more efficient than independent expenditures that cannot be planned with the campaign (NBC News, June 30, 2026).

This matters for how rankings should be read. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball are built partly on fundraising and spending environments. A structural change to spending rules in July of an election year is exactly the kind of event that can move ratings later even though it moves no votes today. Watch the third quarter fundraising reports.

Colorado fired a warning shot at incumbents

Colorado held its primaries on June 30. The results were unkind to established names. In the Democratic primary for governor, state Attorney General Phil Weiser defeated sitting United States Senator Michael Bennet. Weiser led 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent when the race was called (NBC News, Colorado governor primary results, June 30, 2026). A sitting senator losing a statewide primary is rare. It happened anyway.

In the Denver-based 1st Congressional District, 29-year-old democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated Representative Diana DeGette, who has held the seat for nearly 30 years. With about three quarters of the expected vote counted, Kiros led 49 percent to 44 percent (The 19th, June 30, 2026; Colorado Public Radio, June 30, 2026). Senator John Hickenlooper survived his own primary challenge from state Senator Julie Gonzales (NBC News, June 30, 2026). The pattern is one state, one night, and it should not be over-read. But the record now shows two long-tenured Colorado Democrats losing primaries to challengers from their left in a single evening. That is a data point, not a trend. It becomes a trend if it repeats.

The ratings moved: Alaska is now a Toss Up

On July 1, Cook Political Report moved the Alaska Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss Up, citing ballot composition developments unfavorable to Republicans (Cook Political Report, Senate race ratings, July 1, 2026). That followed a June in which Cook moved Ohio from Lean Republican to Toss Up and North Carolina from Toss Up to Lean Democratic (Cook Political Report, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball made matching moves on June 11: Dan Sullivan of Alaska from Leans Republican to Toss Up, Jon Husted of Ohio from Leans Republican to Toss Up, and the open North Carolina seat from Toss Up to Leans Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball, June 11, 2026).

When two independent raters move the same three races in the same direction within three weeks, that is signal, not noise. The Senate math is unchanged: 35 seats are up in 2026, including special elections in Florida and Ohio, 23 of them held by Republicans, and Democrats need a net gain of four for control (Cook Political Report, 2026). Both raters still consider Republicans favored to hold the majority (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). The direction of movement, though, has been one way since spring.

The numbers behind the week

Presidential approval remains the single most predictive midterm number, and it is weak. Marist's June 8 to 11 national poll put President Trump's approval at 36 percent, the lowest of his second term in that survey (Marist Poll, June 2026). The generic congressional ballot showed Democrats ahead 46 percent to 42 percent among registered voters in Morning Consult's early June tracking (Morning Consult, June 2026).

Elsewhere in the record: Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky was hospitalized, with paramedics responding to his home address on the day his office disclosed the hospitalization (NBC News, July 1, 2026). President Trump spoke at the opening of the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in North Dakota and urged Congress to pass legislation on birthright citizenship after the Court ruling went against his executive order (NBC News, July 2026). And the new state fiscal year began July 1 in most states. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed the state's fiscal year 2026-27 budget, the fourth consecutive year of reduced spending by his office's account (Executive Office of the Governor of Florida, June 2026). Budget signings feed directly into the fiscal metrics in our weekly Governor Performance Rankings. The scoreboard updates when the documents do.