FBI: Murder Fell 18.1 Percent in 2025; Violent Crime Down 9.3 Percent

What the FBI published on August 14

On Friday, August 14, 2026, the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting Program put hard year over year estimates for calendar 2025 into the public record while President Donald Trump highlighted them at the Nassau County Police Academy in Garden City, New York (AP, August 14, 2026; NBC News, August 14, 2026; Reuters, August 14, 2026). Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell an estimated 18.1 percent from 2024 to 2025. Robbery fell an estimated 18.5 percent. Aggravated assault fell an estimated 7.2 percent. Rape fell an estimated 7.6 percent. Overall violent crime fell an estimated 9.3 percent. Property crime fell an estimated 12.4 percent (FBI, First Look: 2025 Crime Data; FBI press release, May 13, 2026; AP, August 14, 2026).

Those are agency estimates built from more than 17,000 law enforcement agencies covering about 96 percent of the U.S. population for 2025, with more than 15,000 agencies reporting through the National Incident Based Reporting System (FBI press release, May 13, 2026). The August 14 event is the political packaging of a data set that has been circulating in preliminary form since spring. The numbers themselves are the story the midterm calendar will now argue about.

The homicide rate in plain terms

The FBI report states that the 2025 murder rate is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest rate since FBI estimations began in 1936 (New York Times, August 14, 2026; FBI report language as quoted). Independent crime analysts have said the 2025 murder level is likely the lowest ever recorded when modern public health series are included, while noting that 1950s estimates are harder to compare one for one (Council on Criminal Justice; New York Times, August 14, 2026). AP summarized the same release as the lowest U.S. homicide rate in 75 years (AP, August 14, 2026).

Read the full table, not a single line. Violent crime has been falling for several consecutive years after the pandemic spike. The 2025 drop is large, but it sits on top of declines already visible in 2023 and 2024 (Reuters, August 14, 2026; NBC News, August 14, 2026). That is not a partisan caveat. It is the chronology of the UCR series. A republic that can publish a national crime ledger with agency coverage above 90 percent is doing ordinary statistical work at scale.

How the White House framed the numbers

President Trump called the figures the best crime numbers anyone has seen and tied them to his law and order agenda ahead of the November 3 midterms (NBC News, August 14, 2026; Reuters, August 14, 2026). The attorney general and FBI leadership were part of the Friday presentation circuit (Reuters, August 14, 2026). Campaigns of both parties will use the same table. One side will claim credit for the drop. The other will stress the multi year trend that began before January 2025. The honest desk prints both the magnitude and the timeline.

US Political Rank does not score speeches. It scores measurable outcomes on published rulers. The site's ranking of the states by violent crime rate uses the same family of UCR and state reported rates, applied evenly across all 50 states, with Maine, New Hampshire, and Connecticut at the top of the safety list on the current board. National year over year drops move the mood of a midterm. They do not erase state to state differences that voters still feel on their own blocks.

What this does and does not settle for 2026

August 14 settles the published 2025 percentage changes the FBI is willing to put on the record: murder down 18.1 percent, violent crime down 9.3 percent, property crime down 12.4 percent, robbery down 18.5 percent (FBI; AP; NBC News). It does not settle which party voters will reward on November 3. It does not rewrite Cook's House board, which still shows 19 Toss Ups after the August 13 Solid to Likely moves on three Republican seats (Cook Political Report, August 13, 2026). It does not fill the four vacant House chairs still listed by the Clerk, with California's 14th special general on August 18 and Georgia's 13th runoff on August 25 (Clerk of the House, View Vacancies).

Eighty days separate August 15 from Election Day. Crime is now a quantified midterm exhibit with a date stamp. Inflation remains a separate BLS exhibit, with July CPI at 3.4 percent year over year after 3.5 percent in June (BLS, CPI Summary, July 2026, released August 12). Keep the instruments separate. The FBI table measures reported crime. The CPI table measures prices. The House ratings board measures competitive risk. The American system publishes all three so voters can read them side by side without turning one number into a novel.