August 18 and August 25 Specials and Runoffs Will Refill Two House Seats and Finish One Senate Primary

What the calendar does next

Primary night on August 11 locked nominees in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin, Alabama specials, and South Carolina's Republican Senate field (NBC News, August 12, 2026; Associated Press, August 11, 2026). The next two Tuesdays on the federal calendar are not generic campaign days. They are election days. California's 14th Congressional District holds its special general election on August 18 to finish the term left open when Rep. Eric Swalwell resigned (California Secretary of State, CD-14 special election calendar). On August 25, South Carolina Republicans hold a Senate runoff between appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman, and Georgia voters choose between two Democrats in the 13th District special runoff (New York Times, SC primary results, August 12, 2026; Ballotpedia, GA-13 special, 2026).

That is the operating schedule of a large republic that prefers ballots to empty chairs. November 3 is 82 days from August 13. The specials and runoffs land first.

California 14: Wahab and Hernandez, August 18

California's 14th is wholly inside Alameda County and is a strongly Democratic Bay Area seat. After Swalwell's April resignation, the state ran a special primary. In the June 16 special primary, State Sen. Aisha Wahab finished first with 42.82 percent (52,961 votes) and BART Director Melissa Hernandez finished second with 16.76 percent (20,731 votes), both Democrats advancing under the top two rules because no one cleared a majority (Alameda County Registrar of Voters, certified June 16, 2026 results; Pleasanton Weekly, June 30, 2026). The special general is August 18. The winner finishes the 119th Congress; a separate November ballot will choose the full term that starts in January 2027 (California Secretary of State; CBS San Francisco, June 22, 2026).

Cook's board does not treat CA-14 as a midterm flip test. The district's partisan lean sits deep in Democratic territory on the standard indexes used by the professional raters (Ballotpedia, special elections to the 119th Congress). Refilling the seat restores a vote on the floor. It does not reorder the 19 districts Cook rates as Toss Ups (Cook Political Report, House ratings, August 10, 2026).

August 25: two runoffs, two different chambers

South Carolina's special Republican Senate primary on August 11 produced a clean plurality result and a required second round. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham led with 32.7 percent. Rep. Ralph Norman took second with 24.6 percent. Rep. Russell Fry finished third at 19.6 percent. No candidate cleared 50 percent, so Graham and Norman advance to an August 25 runoff (New York Times interactive results, August 12, 2026; NBC News, August 12, 2026). Cook rates the November general election Solid Republican, with Democrat Annie Andrews already nominated (Cook Political Report, SC Senate 2026). The runoff chooses the Republican nominee. It does not move the seat into the competitive band tracked on the site's 2026 Senate flip likelihood ranking.

Georgia's 13th is a deep blue suburban Atlanta district left vacant after Rep. David Scott died on April 22, 2026. The July 28 special sent Democrats Marcye Scott and Everton Blair to an August 25 runoff after neither cleared a majority; early reported tallies had Scott near 46 to 47 percent and Blair near 36 to 37 percent (Georgia Recorder, July 28, 2026; Fox News, July 28, 2026; Ballotpedia, GA-13 special). Like CA-14, the runoff decides who finishes a term in a district that rarely changes parties. It does not rewrite the House majority math for November.

Four empty chairs and 19 Toss Ups, side by side

The Clerk of the House still lists four vacancies as of this week: California's 14th, Georgia's 13th, Florida's 20th, and Texas's 23rd (Clerk of the House, Members and Vacancies). The live party count is 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, one independent, and four empty seats (House Press Gallery, Party Breakdown; Clerk of the House). A full House majority is 218 of 435. Three of the four open seats last belonged to Democrats; one last belonged to a Republican. Filling CA-14 and GA-13 on the published dates puts two more members back on the floor before Labor Day without changing which party holds the gavel for the rest of the 119th Congress if those deep blue seats stay blue, which the raters expect.

The midterm fight sits elsewhere. Cook's August 10 House board lists 19 Toss Ups after moving Ohio's 7th District from Likely Republican into the Toss Up column, with 184 Solid Democratic and 185 Solid Republican seats around the competitive band (Cook Political Report, August 10, 2026). Those 19 seats, plus the thin Lean band on both sides, are the machine that decides the next majority. US Political Rank scores the tightest of them in its ranking of the 20 most competitive House districts of 2026.

What the next two Tuesdays settle, and what they do not

August 18 puts a member back in CA-14. August 25 settles GA-13 between two Democrats and settles the South Carolina Republican Senate nomination between Graham and Norman. Florida's 20th and Texas's 23rd still wait on state calendars (Clerk of the House). The Senate sits in pro forma sessions with no business expected on August 13 and later recess dates (U.S. Senate Daily Press). The House has been running a thin working majority while four chairs stay empty.

Read the whole board and the American system is doing ordinary work on a published schedule. Names go on ballots. Plurality leaders who fall short of a majority face a second round where the rules require one. Solid districts refill without pretending they are battlegrounds. The battlegrounds remain the 19 Toss Ups and the Senate races already scored as competitive. Watch the two dates already printed, watch whether FL-20 and TX-23 get dates before the fall campaign swallows the calendar, and watch the Cook board for any further moves inside the competitive band. The count that decides the 120th Congress is still taken on November 3.