EPIC-MRA: El-Sayed Leads Rogers 47 to 43 in Michigan Senate Race

Four points, ten undecided, one Toss Up seat

On August 31, 2026, the Detroit Free Press and Forbes reported a new EPIC-MRA survey of Michigan's open U.S. Senate race. Among 600 likely voters interviewed August 22 to 28, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers 47 percent to 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided or refusing. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points (Detroit Free Press, August 31, 2026; Forbes, August 31, 2026).

That four point edge sits inside the poll's error band. It is also the clearest late August public read from a Michigan based firm after El-Sayed's August 4 primary win over Rep. Haley Stevens. A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey earlier in August had El-Sayed ahead by seven points. An AARP survey around August 20 had him ahead by one. Fox News in mid August had Rogers ahead. The instruments disagree. Print all of them (Forbes, August 31, 2026; 270toWin Michigan Senate page, August 29, 2026).

Cook's board still labels Michigan a Toss Up

Cook Political Report rates Michigan's open Democratic seat as one of six Senate Toss Ups on the board last updated August 20. The other five Toss Ups are Republican held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. Cook's summary among seats up this cycle remains Solid Democrat 9, Likely Democrat 1, Lean Democrat 3, Toss Up 6, Lean Republican 0, Likely Republican 2, Solid Republican 14 (Cook Political Report Senate ratings, August 20, 2026; Cook print ratings sheet, September 1, 2026).

Republicans hold a 53 to 47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four for majority control in 2027 because Vice President JD Vance would break a 50 to 50 tie (Cook Political Report, 2026; Forbes, August 31, 2026). Michigan is the only Democratic held Toss Up on that board. Holding it is not optional for any four seat path. Flipping it is not required for Republicans to keep the chamber. US Political Rank tracks that map on its ranking of 2026 Senate races.

A Toss Up label is a published judgment of uncertainty. A four point EPIC-MRA lead is a published preference stack. They can sit on the same desk without one erasing the other.

Crosstabs that explain the four points

EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn pointed to two internals on August 31. El-Sayed led among voters age 18 to 34 by 62 percent to 31 percent. Among voters age 35 to 49 he led 48 to 38. Independents split 36 to 36 with 29 percent undecided. White voters favored Rogers 49 to 43. Black voters favored El-Sayed 77 to 9. Men favored Rogers 52 to 41. Women favored El-Sayed 53 to 34 (Detroit Free Press, August 31, 2026).

The same survey found 62 percent of respondents favored a single payer Medicare for All style plan. More than two thirds of that group supported El-Sayed, who has made the issue central to his general election campaign (Detroit Free Press, August 31, 2026). That is a preference measure inside one poll, not a finished election. It does help explain why a progressive nominee can post a narrow lead in a presidential battleground state that both parties treat as essential.

Governor race on the same questionnaire

EPIC-MRA's companion governor numbers put Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson at 45 percent and Rep. John James at 41 percent, with 14 percent undecided (Detroit Free Press, August 31, 2026). RealClearPolling's average of Michigan governor surveys still showed Benson ahead by about 6 points as of August 31 (Detroit Free Press citing RealClearPolling, August 31, 2026). Porn told the Free Press he was surprised El-Sayed's Senate lead looked wider than Benson's governor lead on the same sample, and said the governor's race may prove more competitive than some expected (Detroit Free Press, August 31, 2026).

Keep the instruments separate. A Senate poll is not a governor poll. A governor average is not a Cook Senate Toss Up. The House map still carries a large Toss Up pile after Cook's August 25 moves, and the RealClearPolitics generic congressional average covering late July through late August still shows Democrats ahead by about 6.4 points (RealClearPolling, August 31, 2026). US Political Rank keeps the state executive races on its ranking of 2026 governor races.

Election Day is 63 days from September 1. Massachusetts votes in its primary today. Michigan's general election numbers from EPIC-MRA are a real late summer receipt. They do not finish Rogers. They do not finish El-Sayed. They do not move Cook's Toss Up label by themselves. They show 47 to 43 with 10 percent still uncommitted on a 600 voter sample. That is enough to print. It is not enough to call the seat.