The 2026 Governor Races Ranked by Flip Likelihood
The 15 most competitive races for governor in 2026, ranked by a consensus of the published ratings of Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball as of late July 2026, including Cook's July 10 and Sabato's Crystal Ball's July 23 rating changes.
How this ranking works
This ranking measures the likelihood that each governorship changes party hands in November 2026. There is no official score for that question, so the ranking is ordinal and analytical, built on the published ratings of named, nonpartisan handicappers: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, cross-checked against the composite maintained at 270toWin. Every rating cited below is attributed to its rater, with the date of the rating change where one was announced.
The composite score converts each rater's category into points for the non-incumbent party (Toss Up = 3, Lean = 2, Likely = 1, Solid or Safe = 0), averages across raters, and breaks ties within categories using released 2026 general election polling from named pollsters (Emerson College Polling, New York Times/Siena College, and others cited inline). Scores run 0 to 10, where 10 means a flip is more likely than not. The per-race subscores published below surface those components directly: the numeric lean Cook assigned, the numeric lean Sabato's Crystal Ball assigned, and the certified 2024 presidential margin, inverted so a closer state reads as a fuller meter.
The framework ignores party. Open seats created by term limits and retirements are scored by the same ruler as incumbent defenses. Thirty-six states elect governors in 2026. Candidate quality enters only where a named rater cited it in a published rating change, as Cook did when it shifted Iowa to Toss Up in April 2026 (KTTC/Cook Political Report, 2026). Ratings reflect the raters' published positions as of July 23, 2026, including the five gubernatorial rating changes Cook Political Report announced on July 10 and the three Sabato's Crystal Ball announced on July 23, when it moved Michigan to Leans Democratic, New Mexico to Safe Democratic, and Florida to Likely Republican.
1GeorgiaOpen seat, R-held. Rick Jackson (R) vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)8.3
With Gov. Brian Kemp term-limited, Cook rates the open seat Toss Up after moving it from Tilt Republican on June 25, 2026 (Cook Political Report, 2026). Healthcare executive Rick Jackson won the June 16 Republican runoff 53 to 47 over Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones after spending more than 100 million dollars of his own money, and he faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in a state decided by 2.2 points in 2024 (NBC News, 2026; Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 2026).
The receipts: Cook moved the open Georgia seat from Tilt Republican to Toss Up on June 25, 2026, one of two governor moves it made that day (Cook Political Report, 2026). Rick Jackson's 53 to 47 runoff win over Trump-endorsed Burt Jones capped the most expensive Republican gubernatorial primary in state history and reset the general election against Keisha Lance Bottoms in a state Trump carried by only 2.2 points (NBC News, 2026; AJC, 2026).
2WisconsinOpen seat, D-held. Nominees decided in August 11 primaries8.0
Gov. Tony Evers's retirement opened a seat Cook rates Toss Up in the state with the closest 2024 presidential margin in the nation, 0.86 points (Cook Political Report, 2026; Wikipedia, 2024 election results). The Democratic field includes Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (19th News, 2026).
The receipts: Wisconsin had the closest presidential margin in the country in 2024 at 0.86 points, and Tony Evers's retirement removed the incumbency advantage from a Democratic-held seat, leaving Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball both at Toss Up (Cook Political Report, 2026; Wikipedia, 2024 election results). The open Democratic primary among Rodriguez, Barnes, and Crowley resolves August 11 (19th News, 2026).
3NevadaGov. Joe Lombardo (R) vs. Attorney General Aaron Ford (D)7.5
Cook rates Nevada Toss Up, the only one of its five gubernatorial Toss Ups where a Republican incumbent is on the ballot (Cook Political Report, 2026). Emerson College Polling found Lombardo and Ford tied at 41 with 18 percent undecided after both won their June primaries decisively (Emerson College Polling, 2026).
The receipts: Nevada is the only Cook Toss Up defended by a sitting Republican governor, and Emerson College Polling measured Lombardo and Ford tied at 41 with 18 percent undecided after both cleared their June primaries (Cook Political Report, 2026; Emerson College Polling, 2026). Lombardo carries a 48 percent favorability rating, the best of any incumbent in a Toss Up race, and the race is still tied, which is what a genuine Toss Up looks like (Noble Predictive Insights, 2026).
4IowaOpen seat, R-held. State Auditor Rob Sand (D) vs. Zach Lahn (R)7.2
Cook moved the race to Toss Up on April 9, 2026, and Sabato's Crystal Ball followed on June 2, 2026 (KTTC/Cook Political Report, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, faces Zach Lahn, who upset Rep. Randy Feenstra in the Republican primary (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026).
The receipts: Cook shifted the open Iowa seat to Toss Up on April 9, 2026, citing Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office in the state and a candidate with documented crossover approval; Sabato's Crystal Ball matched the move on June 2 (KTTC, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). A primary upset then removed the expected Republican nominee, Rep. Randy Feenstra, in favor of Zach Lahn, in a state Trump carried by 13.2 points (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026).
5OhioOpen seat, R-held. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Amy Acton (D)7.0
Cook moved the open race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on July 10, 2026, joining the polling that already put it here: the July NYT/Siena survey found Ramaswamy and Acton tied at 47, and an Emerson College poll showed Acton moving ahead (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026; NYT/Siena via NBC4, 2026; Emerson College Polling via ABC27, 2026). Trump carried the state by 11.2 points in 2024, so the Toss Up rating in a red state is the news.
The receipts: Cook shifted Ohio from Lean Republican to Toss Up on July 10, 2026, one of five governor moves it made that day and one of four toward Democrats (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026). The rating now matches the field data: the July NYT/Siena poll found Ramaswamy and Acton tied at 47 and an Emerson survey showed Acton nosing ahead, in a state Trump carried by 11.2 points (NBC4, 2026; ABC27, 2026).
6ArizonaGov. Katie Hobbs (D), seeking a second term6.5
Cook moved the race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic on July 10, 2026, joining Sabato's Crystal Ball, which had rated it Leans Democratic since March 19, 2026 (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). Hobbs, who won by 0.7 points in 2022 in a state Trump carried by 5.5 in 2024, awaits the August 4 Republican primary between Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. Andy Biggs (Ballotpedia, 2026).
The receipts: Cook shifted Arizona off its Toss Up line to Lean Democratic on July 10, 2026, one of four July 10 moves toward Democrats, aligning it with Sabato's Crystal Ball's March 19 rating of Leans Democratic (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). The seat still ranks near the top because Hobbs won by only 0.7 points in 2022 and defends a state Trump carried by 5.53 points in 2024, the widest 2024 margin of any Democratic-held governorship the raters keep this competitive (Ballotpedia, 2026).
7KansasOpen seat, D-held. Nominees decided in August 4 primaries6.0
With Gov. Laura Kelly term-limited, Cook opened the race at Leans Republican, the only one of its most competitive governorships not rated Toss Up (Cook Political Report, 2026). State Sen. Cindy Holscher leads Democratic primary polling, while the Republican field includes Senate President Ty Masterson and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt (Kansas Reflector, 2026).
The receipts: Kansas elected Democratic governors for eight years under Laura Kelly, but her term-limit exit left Cook rating the open seat Leans Republican in a state Trump carried by 16.2 points, the most competitive Republican-leaning open seat that Cook does not rate Toss Up (Cook Political Report, 2026). The August 4 primaries will set Holscher against a Republican field led by Ty Masterson and Vicki Schmidt (Kansas Reflector, 2026).
8MichiganOpen seat, D-held. Jocelyn Benson (D) leads field; John James (R); Mike Duggan (I)5.2
Cook moved Michigan from Toss Up to Leans Democrat on May 21, 2026 (Cook Political Report, 2026). Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson led Rep. John James and independent former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan in a February Impact Research poll, 39 to 36 to 20, and the RealClearPolitics average showed Benson up 5 in the three-way race (Detroit News, 2026; RealClearPolling, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the seat from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on July 23, 2026, aligning it with Cook (Sabato's Crystal Ball, July 23, 2026).
The receipts: Cook moved the open Michigan seat from Toss Up to Leans Democrat on May 21, 2026 as Benson pulled ahead in a rare three-way race featuring independent Mike Duggan, and Sabato's Crystal Ball matched the move to Leans Democratic on July 23, 2026 (Cook Political Report, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, July 23, 2026). The February Impact Research poll measured Benson 39, James 36, Duggan 20, and later Detroit Regional Chamber polling showed Benson widening the gap as Duggan slipped despite heavy spending (Detroit News, 2026; Detroit Regional Chamber, 2026).
9MinnesotaOpen seat, D-held. Gov. Tim Walz is not seeking reelection4.0
Walz's decision not to run made Minnesota an open seat that forecasters place in the Lean Democratic column rather than safe territory (Race to the WH, 2026). Trump lost the state by 4.3 points in 2024, the closest Republican result there since 2016 (Wikipedia, 2024 election results).
The receipts: Tim Walz's decision not to seek reelection opened a Democratic-held seat that forecasters place at Lean Democratic, not safe, in a state Trump lost by 4.3 points, his closest Minnesota result since 2016 (Race to the WH, 2026; Wikipedia, 2024 election results). The open primary keeps the seat on the competitive list without moving it to Toss Up.
10MaineOpen seat, D-held. Hannah Pingree (D) vs. Bobby Charles (R)3.6
Cook moved the open seat from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic on July 10, 2026, hardening the Democratic hold after term limits ended Gov. Janet Mills's tenure (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026). Former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree and Republican Bobby Charles won their June 9 primaries; prediction markets priced the race roughly 89 percent Democratic (Wikipedia, 2026 Maine gubernatorial election; Polymarket, 2026).
The receipts: Cook shifted the open Maine governorship from Likely to Solid Democratic on July 10, 2026, one of its four July 10 moves toward Democrats, in a state Harris carried by roughly 7 points (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026). Pingree and Charles won June 9 primaries, and prediction markets priced the general roughly 89 percent Democratic, which is why the seat now sits below the pure Lean Democratic open races (Polymarket, 2026).
11AlaskaOpen seat, R-held. Top-four primary Aug. 18, ranked-choice general3.2
Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and seventeen candidates filed, including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, businesswoman Bernadette Wilson, and Democratic former state Sen. Tom Begich (Alaska Beacon, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball lists Alaska among Democrats' longer-shot targets rather than its competitive core (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026).
The receipts: Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and seventeen candidates filed for the August 18 top-four primary and ranked-choice general, including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and Democrat Tom Begich (Alaska Beacon, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball lists Alaska among Democrats' longer-shot targets rather than its competitive core, which is why it ranks below the Democratic-held open seats (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026).
12New HampshireGov. Kelly Ayotte (R), seeking a second two-year term3.0
Ayotte enters the cycle with strong approval ratings, and the UNH Survey Center found her favored for reelection in January 2026 polling (UNH Survey Center, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball notes Democrats should be competitive in the state, which Harris carried by 2.8 points in 2024, but Ayotte starts ahead (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026).
The receipts: The UNH Survey Center found Kelly Ayotte favored for reelection in January 2026 polling, and Sabato's Crystal Ball notes Democrats should be competitive in a state Harris carried by 2.8 points but starts Ayotte ahead (UNH Survey Center, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). New Hampshire's two-year term keeps the seat on the map without a Toss Up rating.
13New YorkGov. Kathy Hochul (D) vs. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R)2.5
Rep. Elise Stefanik ended her challenge in December 2025, leaving Hochul to face Bruce Blakeman in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2002 (NBC News, 2025). The race sits in the Democratic column at the major raters; Hochul won by 6.4 points in the Republican-friendly 2022 cycle.
The receipts: Elise Stefanik ended her challenge in December 2025, leaving Hochul against Bruce Blakeman in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2002 (NBC News, 2025). Hochul won by 6.4 points in the Republican-friendly 2022 cycle, and the raters keep the seat in the Democratic column.
14FloridaOpen seat, R-held. Rep. Byron Donalds leads the GOP field; David Jolly (D)2.4
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the open seat from Safe Republican to Likely Republican on July 23, 2026, its lone Republican-direction move that day and an acknowledgment that Democrat David Jolly makes the race worth watching, though Cook still rates it Solid Republican (Sabato's Crystal Ball, July 23, 2026; Cook Political Report, 2026). Donalds led the August 18 primary field at 46 percent in Emerson College polling and posted a record 22 million dollar quarter (Emerson College Polling, 2026; Florida Politics, 2026).
The receipts: Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted Florida from Safe to Likely Republican on July 23, 2026, while Cook held it at Solid Republican, in a state Trump carried by 13.1 points (Sabato's Crystal Ball, July 23, 2026; Cook Political Report, 2026). Byron Donalds led the primary field at 46 percent in Emerson polling and posted a record 22 million dollar quarter; the Likely rating keeps the seat on the map as the most watched Republican open seat, not a likely flip (Emerson College Polling, 2026; Florida Politics, 2026).
15New MexicoOpen seat, D-held. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Republican nominee2.2
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the open seat from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic on July 23, 2026, matching Cook's earlier Solid Democratic rating and leaving both major handicappers rating it the least likely flip on this list (Sabato's Crystal Ball, July 23, 2026; Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026). Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the June 2 Democratic primary winner, enters the general election as the clear front-runner in a state where no Republican holds statewide office (NBC News, 2026; Source New Mexico, 2026).
The receipts: Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted New Mexico from Likely to Safe Democratic on July 23, 2026, joining Cook's Solid Democratic rating from July 10 and moving the seat to the bottom of this competitive list (Sabato's Crystal Ball, July 23, 2026; Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026). Deb Haaland won the June 2 Democratic primary decisively over Sam Bregman and enters as front-runner in a state Harris carried comfortably in 2024 (NBC News, 2026; Source New Mexico, 2026).
Click any entry to open its full scorecard, sub-scores, and the receipts.
Consensus flip-likelihood score, 15 most competitive governor races (0-10)
Five Toss Ups, one ruler
The Cook Political Report puts five governorships in its Toss Up column for 2026: Ohio, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa. That set changed on July 10, 2026, when Cook moved five ratings at once, four toward Democrats. Ohio entered the Toss Up column from Lean Republican, and Arizona left it, moving to Lean Democratic (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026). Georgia and Iowa reached the Toss Up column by earlier rating changes, Georgia from Tilt Republican on June 25 and Iowa from Lean Republican in April, and Nevada is the only Toss Up with a sitting Republican governor on the ballot (Cook Political Report, 2026). Kansas starts at Leans Republican despite eight years of Democratic governors, because term limits removed Laura Kelly from the equation (Cook Political Report, 2026).
The framework pays no attention to which party a governor belonged to. Ohio moved to Toss Up because a specific Democrat, Amy Acton, drew even with Vivek Ramaswamy in named July polling; Arizona moved to Lean Democratic because Katie Hobbs consolidated her position, even though the state itself leans Republican (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026; NBC4, 2026). The ratings followed the facts. The subscores make that visible: every Toss Up carries a 5-of-6 lean from Cook, and the sorting inside the tier comes from the 2024 margin and the polling.
Term limits did most of the work
Of the 15 races ranked here, ten are open seats. Term limits ended the tenures of Brian Kemp in Georgia, Laura Kelly in Kansas, Mike DeWine in Ohio, Janet Mills in Maine, Michelle Lujan Grisham in New Mexico, Mike Dunleavy in Alaska, and Ron DeSantis in Florida. Retirements opened Wisconsin (Tony Evers), Minnesota (Tim Walz), and Iowa (Kim Reynolds) (Wikipedia, 2026 gubernatorial elections; Ballotpedia, 2026).
Open seats behave differently. No incumbent record anchors the race, so ratings move on primary outcomes. Georgia demonstrated this in June: billionaire Rick Jackson defeated Trump-endorsed Burt Jones in the runoff, 53 to 47, capping the most expensive Republican gubernatorial primary in Georgia history and resetting the general election against Keisha Lance Bottoms overnight (NBC News, 2026; AJC, 2026). Cook moved the seat to Toss Up a week later (Cook Political Report, 2026).
The polls that broke from the ratings
Ohio was the clearest case of daylight between the handicappers and the field data, and Cook closed the gap on July 10. The open seat opened the cycle in the Republican column, which matched a state Trump carried by 11 points in 2024. Then the July NYT/Siena poll found Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton tied at 47, and an Emerson College survey showed Acton nosing ahead (NBC4, 2026; ABC27, 2026). Cook moved Ohio from Lean Republican to Toss Up on July 10, 2026, and this ranking now places it fifth on the strength of both the rating and the polling (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026).
Nevada runs the other way. Joe Lombardo holds a 48 percent favorability rating, the best of any incumbent in a Toss Up race, yet Emerson found the race tied at 41 (Emerson College Polling, 2026; Noble Predictive Insights, 2026). A popular incumbent in a tied race is what a genuine Toss Up looks like. The rating and the data agree.
Michigan's three-way experiment
Michigan is the one race on this list with a credible independent. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan left the Democratic Party to run unaffiliated, and the February Impact Research poll measured the three-way race at Benson 39, James 36, Duggan 20 (Detroit News, 2026). Cook moved the race from Toss Up to Leans Democrat on May 21, 2026, and subsequent Detroit Regional Chamber polling showed Benson pulling ahead as Duggan slipped despite heavy spending (Cook Political Report, 2026; Detroit Regional Chamber, 2026).
Three-way races resist clean scoring. A 39 percent plurality winner is a normal outcome under these conditions, which widens the error bars in both directions. The Leans Democrat rating carries more uncertainty than the same label carries in a two-way race. The methodology says so plainly rather than pretending otherwise, and Michigan's three-way uncertainty subscore is the highest on the board.
What would count as a wave
Governor races are where midterm waves become visible, because 36 states vote at once. The scoreboard to watch: if Democrats win Georgia and Iowa while holding Arizona, Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan, Maine, and Minnesota, and add Ohio, that is a wave map. If Republicans hold Georgia and Iowa and flip any of Arizona, Wisconsin, or Kansas, the environment favored them regardless of what national commentary said. Nevada is the purest test: an incumbent Republican with strong personal numbers in a state Trump won by 3.1 points in 2024 (Emerson College Polling, 2026; Wikipedia, 2024 election results).
If that scoreboard produces discomfort for either party's partisans, the discomfort belongs to the reader, not the data. Only results will settle it, and all 36 arrive on the same night, November 3, 2026.
The money the raters watched
Self-funding reshaped two of these races and is worth stating as documented fact. In Georgia, Rick Jackson spent more than 100 million dollars of his own money to win the Republican runoff, the largest such investment in a Georgia primary on record (NBC News, 2026). In Florida, Byron Donalds posted a record 22 million dollar fundraising quarter to lock down a safe open seat (Florida Politics, 2026). Money does not appear as a scoring component in this ranking, because a named rater's category and a named pollster's numbers are the receipts. But the spending confirms where the professionals see the fights.
The contrast with Michigan is instructive. Mike Duggan and John James both spent heavily, and Benson still pulled ahead in the polling, which is why Cook moved the seat toward Democrats rather than toward the better-funded challengers (Cook Political Report, 2026; Detroit Regional Chamber, 2026). Spending is a signal of seriousness, not a predictor of outcome. The scoreboard reads the ratings and the polls, and lets the money speak only as context.
2024 presidential margin in states with competitive 2026 governor races (negative = Trump won)
How the governor board moved into late July 2026
UPDATE (July 2026): The most recent motion came on July 23, 2026, when Sabato's Crystal Ball changed three gubernatorial ratings, two in the Democrats' direction and one toward Republicans (Sabato's Crystal Ball, July 23, 2026). Michigan moved from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, aligning Sabato with Cook's May 21 rating and confirming Jocelyn Benson's lead in the three-way race. New Mexico moved from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, matching Cook's Solid Democratic rating and dropping the open Haaland seat to the bottom of this competitive list. Florida moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, the one Republican-direction change, a small acknowledgment that Democrat David Jolly keeps the DeSantis open seat on the map even as Cook holds it at Solid Republican.
Before that, the clearest motion came on July 10, 2026, when the Cook Political Report changed five gubernatorial ratings on a single day, four in the Democrats' direction and one toward Republicans (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026). Ohio moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up, catching up to July polling that had Amy Acton even with or ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy. Arizona moved from Toss Up to Lean Democratic, aligning Cook with Sabato's Crystal Ball, which had rated Katie Hobbs's seat Leans Democratic since March 19. Maine and New Mexico both moved from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, hardening two open Democratic holds. The lone move toward Republicans was Oregon, which Cook downgraded from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic, citing Gov. Tina Kotek's weak approval numbers and her narrow 2022 victory (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026).
Before that, Cook's late-June update moved two seats into Toss Up on the same day, June 25, 2026: Georgia from Tilt Republican and Iowa from Lean Republican, though Cook had already shifted Iowa to Toss Up in an April 9 change and the late-June note confirmed the competitive tier (Cook Political Report, 2026; KTTC, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball matched the Iowa move on June 2. The net effect widened the field of genuinely competitive open seats.
The clearest single move in the other direction earlier in the cycle was Michigan. Cook shifted it from Toss Up to Leans Democrat on May 21, 2026 as Jocelyn Benson consolidated a lead in the rare three-way race, and later Detroit Regional Chamber polling reinforced the change as independent Mike Duggan slipped (Cook Political Report, 2026; Detroit Regional Chamber, 2026). Across the board, the story of 2025 into 2026 is term limits and retirements opening ten of the fifteen most competitive seats, then primaries, recruitment, and mid-summer polling deciding which of those openings became real contests. Cook's own framing of its July 10 changes was that Democrats could take a national lead in governorships for the first time since 2010 if the competitive races break their way (Cook Political Report, July 10, 2026).
Governor races Cook rates Toss Up after July 10, by 2024 margin closeness (higher = closer state)
What the evidence settles
The evidence settles the structure of the 2026 governor map as of mid-July. After Cook's July 10 update, it rates five races Toss Up (Ohio, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa) and one Leans Republican (Kansas) among its most competitive tier. Ohio moved to Toss Up and Arizona moved to Lean Democratic on July 10, 2026; Georgia moved to Toss Up on June 25; Iowa moved to Toss Up at both major raters in the spring; and Michigan moved to Leans Democrat on May 21. Maine and New Mexico hardened to Solid Democratic and Oregon eased to Likely Democratic on July 10. On July 23, Sabato's Crystal Ball moved three more: Michigan to Leans Democratic, New Mexico to Safe Democratic, and Florida to Likely Republican. Ten of the 15 most competitive races are open seats created by term limits or retirements. Those are published, dated, attributable facts.
What remains contested
What remains contested is how far the competitive map extends. Democrats argue Ohio's July move to Toss Up shows the map reaching into Trump plus 11 territory; Republicans answer that midterm polls in July have missed before in both directions and that a Toss Up is not a lead. Republicans argue Lombardo's personal popularity will decide Nevada; Democrats answer that a tied poll is a tied poll. Neither side's claim can be settled before November, and this ranking does not pretend otherwise.
Questions people ask
Which governor race is most likely to flip in 2026?
By the consensus of the ratings, Georgia and Wisconsin lead the list. Cook Political Report rates both Toss Up, Georgia because term limits opened a seat decided by 2.2 points at the presidential level, and Wisconsin because it had the closest 2024 presidential margin in the nation at 0.86 points and is now an open seat. Cook moved Georgia to Toss Up on June 25, 2026.
How many 2026 governor races are rated Toss Up?
Five at Cook Political Report after its July 10, 2026 update: Ohio, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa. Cook added Ohio and moved Arizona to Lean Democratic that day. Iowa was added on April 9, Sabato's Crystal Ball matched on June 2, and Georgia joined the column on June 25. Nevada is the only Toss Up defended by a sitting Republican.
What did Cook Political Report change on July 10, 2026?
Cook moved five gubernatorial ratings. Four shifted toward Democrats: Ohio from Lean Republican to Toss Up, Arizona from Toss Up to Lean Democratic, and Maine and New Mexico from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. One shifted toward Republicans: Oregon from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic, citing Gov. Tina Kotek's weak approval and narrow 2022 win.
How many governorships are open seats in 2026?
Ten of the 15 most competitive races have no incumbent on the ballot. Term limits removed the governors of Georgia, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, New Mexico, Alaska, and Florida, and the governors of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa chose not to run.
Which incumbent governors are most vulnerable in 2026?
Cook names Arizona Democrat Katie Hobbs and Nevada Republican Joe Lombardo among the most watched sitting governors, though it moved Hobbs to Lean Democratic on July 10. Hobbs won by 0.7 points in 2022 in a Trump state, and Lombardo is tied with Aaron Ford at 41 in Emerson polling despite a 48 percent favorability rating.
Sources
- The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, 2026 Governor Race Ratings https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings
- Cook Political Report, Five Governors' Race Ratings Shift, All But One in Democrats' Direction, July 10, 2026 https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/five-governors-race-ratings-shift-all-one-democrats-direction
- The Hill, Cook Political Report shifts 4 governor races in favor of Democrats as midterms inch closer, July 10, 2026 https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5962472-cook-political-report-race-updates-democrats-midterms/
- Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026 Governor ratings, University of Virginia Center for Politics https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-governor/
- Sabato's Crystal Ball, The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating Changes in Virginia, Iowa, and Maine https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-2025-2026-gubernatorial-races-rating-changes-in-virginia-iowa-and-maine/
- 270toWin, Cook Political Report 2026 Governor Race Ratings https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-election/cook-political-report-2026-governor
- KTTC, Cook Political Report shifts Iowa governor's race to tossup, April 9, 2026 https://www.kttc.com/2026/04/09/cook-political-report-shifts-iowa-governors-race-tossup/
- NBC News, Billionaire Rick Jackson defeats Trump-backed Burt Jones for the GOP nomination in Georgia governor's race, June 2026 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/georgia-governor-midterm-primary-election-winner-jackson-rcna350030
- Emerson College Polling, Nevada 2026 Poll: Dead Heat for Governor https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll/
- NBC News, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo to face off against Democrat Aaron Ford, June 2026 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/lombardo-ford-nevada-governor-midterms-primary-wins-rcna348482
- NBC News, Deb Haaland defeats Sam Bregman in New Mexico Democratic governor primary, June 2026 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/new-mexico-democratic-governor-primary-election-winner-haaland-rcna347474
- Detroit News, Mike Duggan's campaign for governor slips in new Detroit Chamber poll, May 2026 https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/05/12/michigan-governor-latest-poll-jocelyn-benson-mike-duggan-john-james-perry-johnson/90043032007/
- NBC News, GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik drops out of New York governor's race, December 2025 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/gop-rep-elise-stefanik-drops-new-york-governors-race-rcna250154
- 19th News, Key governor races to watch: Election 2026 https://19thnews.org/2026/05/governor-races-election-2026/
- Alaska Beacon, Seventeen people sign up to run in 2026 Alaska governor race, 2026 https://alaskabeacon.com/briefs/seventeen-people-sign-up-to-run-in-2026-alaska-governor-race-top-four-advance-in-aug-18-primary/
- Ballotpedia, Gubernatorial elections, 2026 https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2026
Parker, T. E. (2026). The 2026 Governor Races Ranked by Flip Likelihood. US Political Rank. https://uspoliticalrank.com/rankings/governor-races-2026<iframe src="https://uspoliticalrank.com/embed/governor-races-2026" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #ddd;border-radius:8px" title="The 2026 Governor Races Ranked by Flip Likelihood" loading="lazy"></iframe>Keep reading
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