The 2026 Governor Races Ranked by Flip Likelihood
The 15 most competitive races for governor in 2026, ranked by a consensus of the published ratings of Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball as of early July 2026.
How this ranking works
This ranking measures the likelihood that each governorship changes party hands in November 2026. There is no official score for that question, so the ranking is ordinal and analytical, built on the published ratings of named, nonpartisan handicappers: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, cross-checked against the composite maintained at 270toWin. Every rating cited below is attributed to its rater, with the date of the rating change where one was announced.
The composite score converts each rater's category into points for the non-incumbent party (Toss Up = 3, Lean = 2, Likely = 1, Solid or Safe = 0), averages across raters, and breaks ties within categories using released 2026 general election polling from named pollsters (Emerson College Polling, New York Times/Siena College, and others cited inline). Scores run 0 to 10, where 10 means a flip is more likely than not.
The framework ignores party. Open seats created by term limits and retirements are scored by the same ruler as incumbent defenses. Thirty-six states elect governors in 2026. Candidate quality enters only where a named rater cited it in a published rating change, as Cook did when it shifted Iowa to Toss Up in April 2026 (KTTC/Cook Political Report, 2026). Ratings reflect the raters' published positions as of July 3, 2026.
| Rank | Name | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ArizonaGov. Katie Hobbs (D), seeking a second termCook Political Report rates the race Toss Up, one of the five governorships it puts in its most competitive category (Cook Political Report, 2026). Hobbs, who won by 0.7 points in 2022 in a state Trump carried by 5.5 in 2024, awaits the August 4 Republican primary between Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. Andy Biggs (Ballotpedia, 2026). | 8.5 |
| 2 | GeorgiaOpen seat, R-held. Rick Jackson (R) vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)With Gov. Brian Kemp term-limited, Cook rates the open seat Toss Up (Cook Political Report, 2026). Healthcare executive Rick Jackson won the June 16 Republican runoff 53 to 47 over Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones after spending more than 100 million dollars of his own money, and he faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in a state decided by 2.2 points in 2024 (NBC News, 2026; Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 2026). | 8.3 |
| 3 | WisconsinOpen seat, D-held. Nominees decided in August 11 primariesGov. Tony Evers's retirement opened a seat Cook rates Toss Up in the state with the closest 2024 presidential margin in the nation, 0.86 points (Cook Political Report, 2026; Wikipedia, 2024 election results). The Democratic field includes Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (19th News, 2026). | 8.0 |
| 4 | NevadaGov. Joe Lombardo (R) vs. Attorney General Aaron Ford (D)Cook rates Nevada Toss Up, the only one of its five gubernatorial Toss Ups where a Republican incumbent is on the ballot (Cook Political Report, 2026). Emerson College Polling found Lombardo and Ford tied at 41 with 18 percent undecided after both won their June primaries decisively (Emerson College Polling, 2026). | 7.5 |
| 5 | IowaOpen seat, R-held. State Auditor Rob Sand (D) vs. Zach Lahn (R)Cook moved the race to Toss Up on April 9, 2026, and Sabato's Crystal Ball followed on June 2, 2026 (KTTC/Cook Political Report, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, faces Zach Lahn, who upset Rep. Randy Feenstra in the Republican primary (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). | 7.2 |
| 6 | KansasOpen seat, D-held. Nominees decided in August 4 primariesWith Gov. Laura Kelly term-limited, Cook opened the race at Leans Republican, the only one of its six most competitive governorships not rated Toss Up (Cook Political Report, 2026). State Sen. Cindy Holscher leads Democratic primary polling, while the Republican field includes Senate President Ty Masterson and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt (Kansas Reflector, 2026). | 6.0 |
| 7 | OhioOpen seat, R-held. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Amy Acton (D)The race to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine opened in the Republican column at the raters, but the July NYT/Siena poll found Ramaswamy and Acton tied at 47, and an Emerson College survey showed Acton moving ahead (NYT/Siena via NBC4, 2026; Emerson College Polling via ABC27, 2026). The polling, not the rating, earns Ohio this position; Trump carried the state by 11 points in 2024. | 5.8 |
| 8 | MichiganOpen seat, D-held. Jocelyn Benson (D) leads field; John James (R); Mike Duggan (I)Cook moved Michigan from Toss Up to Leans Democrat on May 21, 2026 (Cook Political Report, 2026). Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson led Rep. John James and independent former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan in a February Impact Research poll, 39 to 36 to 20, and the RealClearPolitics average showed Benson up 5 in the three-way race (Detroit News, 2026; RealClearPolling, 2026). | 5.2 |
| 9 | MaineOpen seat, D-held. Hannah Pingree (D) vs. Bobby Charles (R)Term limits ended Gov. Janet Mills's tenure, and Sabato's Crystal Ball adjusted its Maine rating in its 2025-2026 gubernatorial update while keeping Democrats favored (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). Former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree and Republican Bobby Charles won their June 9 primaries; prediction markets priced the race roughly 89 percent Democratic (Wikipedia, 2026 Maine gubernatorial election; Polymarket, 2026). | 4.5 |
| 10 | MinnesotaOpen seat, D-held. Gov. Tim Walz is not seeking reelectionWalz's decision not to run made Minnesota an open seat that forecasters place in the Lean Democratic column rather than safe territory (Race to the WH, 2026). Trump lost the state by 4.3 points in 2024, the closest Republican result there since 2016 (Wikipedia, 2024 election results). | 4.0 |
| 11 | New MexicoOpen seat, D-held. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Republican nomineeFormer Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the June 2 Democratic primary decisively and enters the general election as the front-runner in a state where no Republican holds statewide office (NBC News, 2026; Source New Mexico, 2026). The race sits in the Democratic column at the major raters. | 3.5 |
| 12 | AlaskaOpen seat, R-held. Top-four primary Aug. 18, ranked-choice generalGov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and seventeen candidates filed, including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, businesswoman Bernadette Wilson, and Democratic former state Sen. Tom Begich (Alaska Beacon, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball lists Alaska among Democrats' longer-shot targets rather than its competitive core (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). | 3.2 |
| 13 | New HampshireGov. Kelly Ayotte (R), seeking a second two-year termAyotte enters the cycle with strong approval ratings, and the UNH Survey Center found her favored for reelection in January 2026 polling (UNH Survey Center, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball notes Democrats should be competitive in the state, which Harris carried by 2.8 points in 2024, but Ayotte starts ahead (Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). | 3.0 |
| 14 | New YorkGov. Kathy Hochul (D) vs. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R)Rep. Elise Stefanik ended her challenge in December 2025, leaving Hochul to face Bruce Blakeman in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2002 (NBC News, 2025). The race sits in the Democratic column at the major raters; Hochul won by 6.4 points in the Republican-friendly 2022 cycle. | 2.5 |
| 15 | FloridaOpen seat, R-held. Rep. Byron Donalds leads the GOP field; David Jolly (D)Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and Cook rates the open seat Solid Republican while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican (Cook Political Report, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). Donalds led the August 18 primary field at 46 percent in Emerson College polling and posted a record 22 million dollar quarter; the seat makes this list as the most watched of the safe open seats, not as a likely flip (Emerson College Polling, 2026; Florida Politics, 2026). | 2.0 |
Consensus flip-likelihood score, 15 most competitive governor races (0-10)
Five Toss Ups, one ruler
The Cook Political Report puts five governorships in its Toss Up column for 2026: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa. Four of the five involve seats Democrats currently hold or Republicans defend with term-limited incumbents. Nevada is the exception, the only Toss Up with a sitting Republican governor on the ballot (Cook Political Report, 2026). Kansas starts at Leans Republican despite eight years of Democratic governors, because term limits removed Laura Kelly from the equation (Cook Political Report, 2026).
The framework pays no attention to which party a governor belonged to. Iowa moved to Toss Up in April 2026 because a specific Democrat, State Auditor Rob Sand, entered with documented crossover approval, and because a primary upset removed the expected Republican nominee (KTTC, 2026; Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026). The rating followed the facts.
Term limits did most of the work
Of the 15 races ranked here, ten are open seats. Term limits ended the tenures of Brian Kemp in Georgia, Laura Kelly in Kansas, Mike DeWine in Ohio, Janet Mills in Maine, Michelle Lujan Grisham in New Mexico, Mike Dunleavy in Alaska, and Ron DeSantis in Florida. Retirements opened Wisconsin (Tony Evers), Minnesota (Tim Walz), and Iowa (Kim Reynolds) (Wikipedia, 2026 gubernatorial elections; Ballotpedia, 2026).
Open seats behave differently. No incumbent record anchors the race, so ratings move on primary outcomes. Georgia demonstrated this in June: billionaire Rick Jackson defeated Trump-endorsed Burt Jones in the runoff, 53 to 47, capping the most expensive Republican gubernatorial primary in Georgia history and resetting the general election against Keisha Lance Bottoms overnight (NBC News, 2026; AJC, 2026).
The polls that broke from the ratings
Two races show daylight between the handicappers and the field data. Ohio opened the cycle in the Republican column, which matches a state Trump carried by 11 points in 2024. Then the July NYT/Siena poll found Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton tied at 47, and an Emerson College survey showed Acton nosing ahead (NBC4, 2026; ABC27, 2026). This ranking places Ohio seventh on the strength of that polling while noting the ratings have not moved as far.
Nevada runs the other way. Joe Lombardo holds a 48 percent favorability rating, the best of any incumbent in a Toss Up race, yet Emerson found the race tied at 41 (Emerson College Polling, 2026; Noble Predictive Insights, 2026). A popular incumbent in a tied race is what a genuine Toss Up looks like. The rating and the data agree.
Michigan's three-way experiment
Michigan is the one race on this list with a credible independent. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan left the Democratic Party to run unaffiliated, and the February Impact Research poll measured the three-way race at Benson 39, James 36, Duggan 20 (Detroit News, 2026). Cook moved the race from Toss Up to Leans Democrat on May 21, 2026, and subsequent Detroit Regional Chamber polling showed Benson pulling ahead as Duggan slipped despite heavy spending (Cook Political Report, 2026; Detroit Regional Chamber, 2026).
Three-way races resist clean scoring. A 39 percent plurality winner is a normal outcome under these conditions, which widens the error bars in both directions. The Leans Democrat rating carries more uncertainty than the same label carries in a two-way race. The methodology says so plainly rather than pretending otherwise.
What would count as a wave
Governor races are where midterm waves become visible, because 36 states vote at once. The scoreboard to watch: if Democrats win Georgia and Iowa while holding Arizona, Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan, Maine, and Minnesota, that is a wave map. If Republicans hold Georgia and Iowa and flip any of Arizona, Wisconsin, or Kansas, the environment favored them regardless of what national commentary said. Nevada is the purest test: an incumbent Republican with strong personal numbers in a state Trump won by 3.1 points in 2024 (Emerson College Polling, 2026; Wikipedia, 2024 election results).
If that scoreboard produces discomfort for either party's partisans, the discomfort belongs to the reader, not the data. Only results will settle it, and all 36 arrive on the same night, November 3, 2026.
2024 presidential margin in states with competitive 2026 governor races (negative = Trump won)
What the evidence settles
The evidence settles the structure of the 2026 governor map. Cook Political Report rates five races Toss Up (Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa) and one Leans Republican (Kansas) among its most competitive tier, Iowa moved to Toss Up at both major raters in the spring of 2026 after documented candidate developments, and Michigan moved to Leans Democrat on May 21, 2026. Ten of the 15 most competitive races are open seats created by term limits or retirements. Those are published, dated, attributable facts.
What remains contested
What remains contested is how far the competitive map extends. Democrats argue Ohio's tied summer polling shows the map reaching into Trump plus 11 territory; Republicans answer that ratings in Ohio have not moved and that midterm polls in July have missed before in both directions. Republicans argue Lombardo's personal popularity will decide Nevada; Democrats answer that a tied poll is a tied poll. Neither side's claim can be settled before November, and this ranking does not pretend otherwise.
Questions people ask
Which governor race is most likely to flip in 2026?
By the consensus of the ratings, Arizona and Georgia lead the list. Cook Political Report rates both Toss Up, Arizona because Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs defends a state Trump carried by 5.5 points in 2024, and Georgia because term limits opened a seat decided by 2.2 points at the presidential level.
How many 2026 governor races are rated Toss Up?
Five at Cook Political Report as of mid-2026: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa. Iowa was added on April 9, 2026, and Sabato's Crystal Ball matched the move on June 2, 2026. Nevada is the only Toss Up defended by a sitting Republican.
Why is Ohio ranked so high when it is a red state?
Polling, not ratings. The July 2026 NYT/Siena poll found Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton tied at 47, and Emerson College showed Acton slightly ahead, in a state Trump carried by 11 points in 2024. The raters still list Ohio in the Republican column, and this ranking discloses that gap.
How many governorships are open seats in 2026?
Ten of the 15 most competitive races have no incumbent on the ballot. Term limits removed the governors of Georgia, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, New Mexico, Alaska, and Florida, and the governors of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa chose not to run.
Sources
- The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, 2026 Governor Race Ratings https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings
- Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2026 Governor ratings, University of Virginia Center for Politics https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-governor/
- Sabato's Crystal Ball, The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating Changes in Virginia, Iowa, and Maine https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-2025-2026-gubernatorial-races-rating-changes-in-virginia-iowa-and-maine/
- 270toWin, Cook Political Report 2026 Governor Race Ratings https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-election/cook-political-report-2026-governor
- KTTC, Cook Political Report shifts Iowa governor's race to tossup, April 9, 2026 https://www.kttc.com/2026/04/09/cook-political-report-shifts-iowa-governors-race-tossup/
- NBC News, Billionaire Rick Jackson defeats Trump-backed Burt Jones for the GOP nomination in Georgia governor's race, June 2026 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/georgia-governor-midterm-primary-election-winner-jackson-rcna350030
- Emerson College Polling, Nevada 2026 Poll: Dead Heat for Governor https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll/
- NBC News, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo to face off against Democrat Aaron Ford, June 2026 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/lombardo-ford-nevada-governor-midterms-primary-wins-rcna348482
- NBC News, Deb Haaland defeats Sam Bregman in New Mexico Democratic governor primary, June 2026 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/new-mexico-democratic-governor-primary-election-winner-haaland-rcna347474
- Detroit News, Mike Duggan's campaign for governor slips in new Detroit Chamber poll, May 2026 https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/05/12/michigan-governor-latest-poll-jocelyn-benson-mike-duggan-john-james-perry-johnson/90043032007/
- NBC News, GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik drops out of New York governor's race, December 2025 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/gop-rep-elise-stefanik-drops-new-york-governors-race-rcna250154
- 19th News, Key governor races to watch: Election 2026 https://19thnews.org/2026/05/governor-races-election-2026/
- Alaska Beacon, Seventeen people sign up to run in 2026 Alaska governor race, 2026 https://alaskabeacon.com/briefs/seventeen-people-sign-up-to-run-in-2026-alaska-governor-race-top-four-advance-in-aug-18-primary/
Parker, T. E. (2026). The 2026 Governor Races Ranked by Flip Likelihood. US Political Rank. https://uspoliticalrank.com/rankings/governor-races-2026<iframe src="https://uspoliticalrank.com/embed/governor-races-2026" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #ddd;border-radius:8px" title="The 2026 Governor Races Ranked by Flip Likelihood" loading="lazy"></iframe>The Daily Rank
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