NBC Poll Puts Trump at 41 Percent Approval With Democrats Ahead 50 to 45 on Congress

What the Sunday poll put on the desk

NBC News released a new national poll on Sunday, September 20, that put President Donald Trump's job approval at 41 percent among registered voters, with 55 percent disapproving (NBC News / Meet the Press, September 20, 2026; USA TODAY Network via Reuters, September 20, 2026). Steve Kornacki told Meet the Press that the 41 percent mark is the lowest Trump has recorded in the NBC series during his second term, down from the mid to high 40s earlier in the term.

On the generic congressional ballot in the same survey, Democrats led Republicans 50 percent to 45 percent (NBC News, September 20, 2026). That is a five point Democratic edge with 43 days left until Election Day on November 3. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters by telephone and online from September 11 to 15 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points (USA TODAY Network via Reuters, September 20, 2026).

Economy numbers next to the approval line

Fifty five percent of registered voters in the NBC sample said Trump's policies have hurt the economy, up from 48 percent who gave that answer in March (USA TODAY Network via Reuters, September 20, 2026). Cost of living remained the top national concern in both the March and September NBC waves. Pollsters pointed to the ongoing Iran war as a driver of higher gasoline prices and related costs.

On issue ownership, Kornacki reported that Democrats held a one point edge on inflation and on jobs and the economy, the first time NBC has shown that Democratic edge on those questions in nine years, dating to 2017 (NBC News / Meet the Press, September 20, 2026). Republicans retained an advantage on immigration in the same battery. Publish both lines. An immigration edge and an economy edge are not the same instrument.

Signal of opposition and party image

Asked whether their midterm vote would send a signal of opposition to the president, 43 percent said yes, 27 percent said a signal of support, and 28 percent said not a signal either way (NBC News survey topline, September 2026; Meet the Press, September 20, 2026). That opposition share sits above several prior midterm benchmarks in the NBC series that Kornacki reviewed on air.

Party image numbers remain weak for both parties. In the September image summary, the Republican Party stood at 36 percent positive and 49 percent negative, while the Democratic Party stood at 29 percent positive and 50 percent negative (Hart Research / Public Opinion Strategies NBC survey tables, September 2026). A five point generic lead can coexist with underwater party brands. That is a documented pattern, not a contradiction.

How the NBC five points sit next to other boards

Wikipedia's September 20 aggregator table of generic ballot averages showed Democrats ahead by 7.3 points at Decision Desk HQ, 7.2 at FiftyPlusOne, 8.1 at RealClearPolitics, and 7.9 at Silver Bulletin, for a simple average near Democrats plus 7.6 (Wikipedia, 2026 United States elections, updated September 20, 2026). The New York Times measured a nearly nine point Democratic edge on the congressional ballot in its own recent national read (New York Times, September 21, 2026).

NBC's five point lead is therefore the more modest reading among the instruments published this weekend, not the largest. Compare it to 2018 at a similar calendar point, when NBC showed Democrats ahead by about seven points in Kornacki's on air comparison (Meet the Press, September 20, 2026). A smaller lead than 2018 is still a lead. US Political Rank keeps the live board of most competitive House districts of 2026 next to what history says about the 2026 midterm House so a single poll never has to carry the whole story.

What Monday settles and what stays open

Settled on Monday's desk: Trump's NBC approval is 41 percent among registered voters; Democrats lead 50 to 45 on that poll's generic ballot; 55 percent say his policies have hurt the economy; 43 percent want their vote to signal opposition; Democrats hold a narrow NBC edge on inflation and jobs for the first time in nine years in that series; other aggregators still show larger Democratic generic leads near plus 7 to plus 9 (NBC News, September 20, 2026; Wikipedia aggregator table, September 20, 2026; New York Times, September 21, 2026).

Still open: whether October samples hold the NBC five point lead or move toward the wider aggregator averages; whether gas and CPI prints change the economy ownership lines; and whether Cook's House map of 206 seats at least leaning Democratic, 208 at least leaning Republican, and 21 toss ups still requires Democrats to win most of those toss ups for a majority (Cook Political Report via New York Times, September 21, 2026). America can publish a second term low, a five point ballot lead, and a working early vote calendar in the same week. That is ordinary self government under pressure, not a finished canvass. Print the numbers. Wait for November 3.