Forbes Frames Six Cook Senate Toss Ups as Trump Approval Sits Near 38 Percent

Saturday's map of six

Saturday, August 22, 2026, put a dated list on the Senate midterm. Forbes named six races that Cook Political Report rates Toss Up: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas (Forbes, August 22, 2026; Cook Political Report Senate ratings, August 20, 2026). Five of those six are Republican held seats. Only Maine is a seat in a state President Trump lost in 2024 (Forbes, August 22, 2026).

Cook moved Iowa and Texas from Lean Republican to Toss Up on August 20, emptying the Lean Republican column on its Senate board and expanding the Toss Up column to six (Cook Political Report, August 20, 2026; Washington Post, August 20, 2026; 270toWin Cook Senate page, August 20, 2026). Forbes's Saturday frame is a reader friendly tour of that board, not a new rating change. The board itself still dates to Thursday.

What each Toss Up is measuring

Alaska pairs Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) with former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) after both advanced from the August 19 top four primary. Peltola finished ahead of Sullivan in that first round by about five points in published tallies covered this week (Forbes, August 22, 2026; prior US Political Rank coverage of Alaska's primary). Iowa pairs Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) with state Rep. Josh Turek (D) for the open seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. Recent New York Times/Siena and Emerson College surveys showed Hinson ahead by two to three points earlier this month (Forbes, August 22, 2026).

Maine pairs Sen. Susan Collins (R) with former state Sen. Troy Jackson (D). A University of New Hampshire poll in July had Jackson ahead by three (Forbes, August 22, 2026). Michigan pairs Abdul El-Sayed (D), who edged Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary, with former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) for the open seat of retiring Sen. Gary Peters. A Susquehanna survey released earlier this month showed El-Sayed ahead by seven (Forbes, August 22, 2026). Ohio pairs appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). A Fox News poll earlier this month showed Brown ahead by eight (Forbes, August 22, 2026). Texas pairs Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) with state Rep. James Talarico (D). An Emerson College survey earlier this month had Paxton ahead by one with 5 percent undecided (Forbes, August 22, 2026).

The approval number sitting beside the map

Forbes's big number for the week is 38 percent. That is President Trump's approval in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin polling average as cited on August 22 (Forbes, August 22, 2026; Silver Bulletin). The same piece notes a recent string of surveys showing second term lows amid public fatigue with the Iran war and its economic effects (Forbes, August 22, 2026). Approval is not a Senate ballot. It is a national temperature reading that midterm history watches closely because the president's party has often lost House seats when the White House is underwater.

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber in 2027. Cook rates the overall fight for Senate control as a Toss Up, with Republicans still slightly favored on the structural map (Forbes, August 22, 2026; Cook Political Report, August 20, 2026). In the House, where Republicans hold a narrow majority near 218 to 213 in published August snapshots, most generic ballot averages still show Democrats ahead (Forbes, August 22, 2026; New York Times generic ballot tracker). Keep the instruments labeled. A Toss Up seat is not a flipped seat. A 38 percent approval average is not a November vote count.

How US Political Rank reads the same board

US Political Rank converts published rating desks into one flip likelihood ruler on its ranking of the 2026 Senate races, with the rater and the date named on every move. Lean Democrat seats such as North Carolina and Georgia still matter for the four seat math even though they are not in the Toss Up six. Solid Republican seats such as South Carolina can host loud nomination fights without rewriting the chamber map by themselves. Tuesday, August 25, still decides a Republican Senate nominee in South Carolina and a House refill in Georgia's 13th District. Those are real ballots on a real calendar. They are not substitutes for the six Toss Ups Forbes listed on Saturday.

Saturday settles a clear public framing: six Cook Toss Ups, five of them Republican held, with Trump's Silver Bulletin approval near 38 percent in the same piece (Forbes, August 22, 2026). It does not settle November 3. Seventy two days separate August 23 from Election Day. Read the Forbes list for what it is. Read Cook's August 20 board for the dated categories. Then wait for voters who have not yet cast a ballot.