This ranking scores every completed presidency from Dwight D. Eisenhower through Joe Biden on two measures drawn from the Office of Management and Budget's Historical Tables (Tables 1.2 and 7.1), Treasury's Fiscal Data, and Congressional Budget Office historical budget data: the change in gross federal debt as a percentage of GDP over the tenure, and the average annual budget deficit or surplus as a percentage of GDP. Fiscal years are attributed to the president who served the majority of the year and signed its appropriations, the standard OMB convention; transition years such as FY2009 and FY2021, which straddle administrations and pandemic or crisis spending enacted by a predecessor, are flagged in the narrative. Percentages are rounded, and figures for the most recent years reflect OMB and Treasury data available as of mid-2026.
Each president is ranked on both measures, the ranks are averaged, and the result is rescaled to a 100-point score. Rank 1 is the strongest fiscal record: debt shrinking relative to the economy and deficits near balance. The score is ordinal and analytical; no official fiscal grade for presidents exists.
What is deliberately ignored: party, stated fiscal philosophy, and campaign promises. Also ignored is the composition of spending; a deficit run for war, recession relief, or tax cuts counts identically, because the table measures fiscal outcomes, not the merits of what the money bought. Attribution caveats, including recessions inherited and emergencies faced, are addressed in the contested section rather than adjusted into the numbers. Donald Trump's second term is excluded as incomplete as of July 2026.
", "entries": [ { "rank": 1, "name": "Dwight D. Eisenhower", "detail": "Republican, 1953-1961", "score": "96.2", "blurb": "Gross federal debt fell from about 71 percent of GDP to about 55 percent, a 16-point decline, the largest of the postwar era after Truman, with budgets averaging within half a percent of balance and three surplus years (OMB Historical Tables 1.2, 7.1)." }, { "rank": 2, "name": "Bill Clinton", "detail": "Democrat, 1993-2001", "score": "94.8", "blurb": "Debt fell from about 66 percent of GDP to about 56 percent, and the budget swung from a 3.8 percent-of-GDP deficit in FY1993 to four consecutive surpluses in FY1998-2001, the only surpluses since 1969 (OMB Historical Tables; Treasury Fiscal Data)." }, { "rank": 3, "name": "John F. Kennedy", "detail": "Democrat, 1961-1963", "score": "89.5", "blurb": "Debt-to-GDP declined roughly 6 points over the abbreviated tenure as growth outran small deficits that averaged about 1 percent of GDP (OMB Historical Tables 1.2, 7.1)." }, { "rank": 4, "name": "Lyndon B. Johnson", "detail": "Democrat, 1963-1969", "score": "87.3", "blurb": "Debt fell from roughly 49 percent of GDP to about 39 percent, and FY1969 posted the last budget surplus for 29 years, though Vietnam pushed the FY1968 deficit to 2.8 percent of GDP (OMB Historical Tables 1.2, 7.1)." }, { "rank": 5, "name": "Richard Nixon", "detail": "Republican, 1969-1974", "score": "81.0", "blurb": "Debt-to-GDP continued falling, from about 39 percent to about 34 percent, with deficits averaging near 1.2 percent of GDP, helped substantially by inflation eroding the real value of existing debt (OMB Historical Tables)." }, { "rank": 6, "name": "Jimmy Carter", "detail": "Democrat, 1977-1981", "score": "76.4", "blurb": "The last president to leave the debt ratio lower than he found it until Clinton: gross debt fell from about 36 percent of GDP to about 32.5 percent, with deficits averaging about 2.4 percent (OMB Historical Tables 7.1)." }, { "rank": 7, "name": "Gerald Ford", "detail": "Republican, 1974-1977", "score": "70.2", "blurb": "The 1974-75 recession pushed deficits to an average around 3.3 percent of GDP, the highest since World War II at the time, and the debt ratio ticked up about 2 points (OMB Historical Tables 1.2)." }, { "rank": 8, "name": "George H. W. Bush", "detail": "Republican, 1989-1993", "score": "65.8", "blurb": "Debt rose from about 53 percent of GDP to about 66 percent in four years, with deficits averaging about 4 percent, though his 1990 budget agreement, which cost him politically, laid groundwork for the 1990s improvement (OMB; CBO)." }, { "rank": 9, "name": "Joe Biden", "detail": "Democrat, 2021-2025", "score": "63.1", "blurb": "The debt-to-GDP ratio was roughly flat, near 122 percent at the start and end of the term, as inflation-swollen nominal GDP offset large borrowing, but deficits averaged about 6 percent of GDP in non-crisis years, the highest sustained peacetime-and-expansion level on record (Treasury Fiscal Data; CBO)." }, { "rank": 10, "name": "George W. Bush", "detail": "Republican, 2001-2009", "score": "60.4", "blurb": "The largest debt-ratio increase of any completed presidency: gross debt rose from about 56 percent of GDP to about 84 percent, as surpluses became deficits after 2001 tax cuts, two wars, and the 2008 crisis response, with FY2009 spending partly shared with his successor (OMB Historical Tables 7.1)." }, { "rank": 11, "name": "Ronald Reagan", "detail": "Republican, 1981-1989", "score": "57.7", "blurb": "Debt rose from about 32.5 percent of GDP to about 53 percent, roughly a 20-point increase and the first large peacetime debt buildup in American history, with deficits averaging about 4.2 percent of GDP (OMB Historical Tables; Treasury)." }, { "rank": 12, "name": "Barack Obama", "detail": "Democrat, 2009-2017", "score": "55.0", "blurb": "Debt rose from about 84 percent of GDP to over 100 percent, crossing the full-size-of-the-economy line for the first time since 1946, with deficits averaging about 5 percent including the FY2009-2012 crisis years and narrowing to about 3 percent by 2015 (OMB; CBO)." }, { "rank": 13, "name": "Donald Trump (first term)", "detail": "Republican, 2017-2021", "score": "48.3", "blurb": "The worst average deficit of any completed presidency, about 9 percent of GDP across the term, including 14.7 percent in FY2020, the largest since 1945, as pandemic response stacked on deficits already near 4.6 percent of GDP in the pre-pandemic FY2019 (OMB Historical Tables 1.2; CBO). Debt jumped roughly 20 points of GDP." } ], "narrative": [ { "heading": "Two numbers, no adjectives", "html": "Fiscal debates run on vibes. This table runs on two series any reader can check. OMB Historical Table 7.1 reports federal debt as a share of GDP for every fiscal year since 1940. Table 1.2 reports each year's surplus or deficit as a share of GDP. Divide the era into presidencies, apply the standard fiscal-year attribution, and the ranking mostly writes itself.
The long arc is stark. Gross federal debt was about 71 percent of GDP when Eisenhower took office, fell steadily to a low near 32 percent at the end of the 1970s, then reversed. It roughly doubled relative to the economy in the 1980s and early 1990s, fell during the late-1990s surpluses, and has climbed in every presidency since 2001, passing 100 percent of GDP during Obama's tenure and reaching the low 120s by the mid-2020s (OMB Table 7.1; Treasury Fiscal Data).
" }, { "heading": "The top of the table belongs to both parties", "html": "Eisenhower ranks first: a 16-point drop in the debt ratio and eight budgets that averaged within roughly half a percent of balance, including three surpluses (OMB Table 1.2). Clinton ranks second on the strength of the only surpluses of the last 57 years, FY1998 through FY2001, peaking at 2.3 percent of GDP in FY2000, alongside a 10-point drop in the debt ratio. Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Carter fill the next four slots because every one of them left the debt ratio lower than they found it.
That last sentence deserves emphasis, because it cuts against reputation in both directions. Carter, remembered for economic failure, ran smaller deficits than any successor and shrank the debt ratio. Nixon's fiscal numbers look disciplined partly because high inflation was quietly eroding the real debt, a mechanism the table counts without endorsing. The framework pays no attention to which party a president belonged to.
" }, { "heading": "The era of permanent red ink", "html": "Since FY1981, the United States has run deficits in 41 of 45 fiscal years. Reagan's buildup, about 20 points of GDP, was the first large peacetime debt expansion in the nation's history and drew warnings from his own budget director (OMB Table 7.1; Stockman testimony, 1981-85). George W. Bush presided over the largest completed-tenure ratio increase, about 28 points, converting inherited surpluses into deficits through tax cuts, two wars, Medicare Part D, and the 2008 crisis response. Obama added roughly 20 points, front-loaded in the crisis years FY2009-2012 when deficits ran 6.7 to 9.8 percent of GDP before narrowing.
Trump's first term posts the worst single measure on the table: an average deficit near 9 percent of GDP, driven by FY2020's 14.7 percent, the largest since World War II (OMB Table 1.2). The table's rules matter here and are applied evenly. Truman was not excused for demobilization, Obama was not excused for the crisis he inherited, and Trump is not excused for the pandemic. The FY2019 deficit of 4.6 percent of GDP, recorded at full employment before any pandemic, is the number that resists the emergency explanation (CBO).
" }, { "heading": "Biden's split verdict, and the outlook the data implies", "html": "Biden's record produces the most genuinely mixed line in the table. Measured by the debt ratio, his term is nearly flat, roughly 122 percent of GDP at both ends, because the strongest nominal GDP growth in decades, much of it inflation, grew the denominator as fast as borrowing grew the numerator (Treasury Fiscal Data). Measured by deficits, his non-crisis years averaged about 6 percent of GDP, a level never before sustained outside war or recession (CBO). Rank nine is what those two facts average to.
The forward-looking numbers are not part of the ranking but frame it. CBO's long-term outlook projects debt held by the public exceeding its World War II record share of GDP within this decade absent policy change, with net interest already surpassing defense spending in FY2024 (CBO, Long-Term Budget Outlook). Whoever completes the next entry on this table will be measured against that baseline, by the same two numbers.
" } ], "settled": "The record settles the direction of causality-free facts. Every president from Eisenhower through Carter left federal debt smaller relative to the economy than he found it, and every president from Reagan forward except Clinton and Biden left it larger. Clinton ran the only surpluses since 1969. Trump's first term recorded the largest average deficit of any completed presidency, and FY2020's 14.7 percent of GDP deficit is the largest since 1945. Debt crossed 100 percent of GDP during Obama's tenure for the first time since the 1940s. All figures trace to OMB Historical Tables and Treasury data.", "contested": "What remains contested is blame and credit. Deficits are enacted by Congresses as well as presidents, and the largest swings, 2008-2009 and 2020-2021, were bipartisan crisis responses that straddled administrations, so FY2009 flatters Obama's average and FY2021's split flatters both Trump and Biden depending on the convention chosen. Economists also dispute whether the debt ratio or the deficit average better measures stewardship, since inflation can flatten the ratio while eroding household purchasing power, as in 2021-2023. This table reports both measures and its attribution rules so readers can re-weigh them.", "charts": [ { "type": "diverging", "title": "Change in gross federal debt as a share of GDP during tenure", "unit": "percentage points", "data": [ { "label": "Eisenhower", "value": -16.2 }, { "label": "Clinton", "value": -9.7 }, { "label": "Johnson", "value": -10 }, { "label": "Kennedy", "value": -5.9 }, { "label": "Nixon", "value": -5 }, { "label": "Carter", "value": -3.3 }, { "label": "Biden", "value": -1 }, { "label": "Ford", "value": 2.2 }, { "label": "G.H.W. Bush", "value": 13 }, { "label": "Trump (1st)", "value": 19 }, { "label": "Reagan", "value": 20.6 }, { "label": "G.W. Bush", "value": 27.8 } ] }, { "type": "diverging", "title": "Average annual budget balance during tenure", "unit": "percent of GDP", "data": [ { "label": "Clinton", "value": -0.1 }, { "label": "Eisenhower", "value": -0.4 }, { "label": "Kennedy", "value": -0.9 }, { "label": "Johnson", "value": -1 }, { "label": "Nixon", "value": -1.2 }, { "label": "Carter", "value": -2.4 }, { "label": "G.W. Bush", "value": -3.2 }, { "label": "Ford", "value": -3.3 }, { "label": "G.H.W. Bush", "value": -4 }, { "label": "Reagan", "value": -4.2 }, { "label": "Obama", "value": -5 }, { "label": "Biden", "value": -6 } ] } ], "sources": [ { "title": "Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables (Tables 1.2 and 7.1)", "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/historical-tables/" }, { "title": "U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, National Deficit", "url": "https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/" }, { "title": "U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, National Debt", "url": "https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/" }, { "title": "Congressional Budget Office, Historical Budget Data", "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data" }, { "title": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Surplus or Deficit as Percent of GDP (FYFSGDA188S)", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S" }, { "title": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of GDP (GFDEGDQ188S)", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S" }, { "title": "Wikipedia compilation of OMB data, History of the United States public debt", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_public_debt" }, { "title": "Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook", "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61187" } ], "faq": [ { "q": "Which president had the best fiscal record?", "a": "By these two measures, Eisenhower: a 16-point drop in debt-to-GDP and budgets averaging near balance across eight years. Clinton is second, with the only budget surpluses since 1969, in fiscal years 1998 through 2001." }, { "q": "Which president added the most to the debt relative to the economy?", "a": "George W. Bush saw the largest debt-to-GDP increase of a completed presidency, roughly 28 percentage points. Trump's first term had the worst average annual deficit, about 9 percent of GDP, including the FY2020 pandemic deficit of 14.7 percent, the largest since World War II." }, { "q": "Did the debt ratio really fall under Biden?", "a": "It was roughly flat to slightly lower, near 122 percent of GDP at both ends of the term, because rapid nominal GDP growth, much of it inflation, kept pace with heavy borrowing. His deficits still averaged about 6 percent of GDP, historically high for an economy at full employment." }, { "q": "When was the last federal budget surplus?", "a": "Fiscal year 2001, the fourth consecutive surplus, per OMB and Treasury records. Before that streak, the last surplus was fiscal year 1969." } ] }